RTW TRACK THE TROPICS UPDATE AUG 21, 2021 10:38 AM EDT

 

STORM INVEST OVER THE ATLANTIC HAS TO MOVE THROUGH DEEP SAHARA DRY AIR/ DUST AND COOL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.  ANY CHANCE FOR DEVELOPMENT WOULD BE OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC EAST OF BERMUDA.  CHANCE FOR FORMATION LOW 0-30%

STORM INVEST IN THE CARIBBEAN HAS TO MOVE THROUGH SOME SHEAR AND BETTER CHANCE FOR FORMATION WOULD BE IN THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.  CHANCE FOR FORMATION LOW 0-30%

THE GFS SEEMS TO SUGGEST THAT THE CARIBBEAN WILL BE A BREEDING GROUND FOR DEVELOPMENT OF TROPICAL CYCLONES.  I THINK ITS A BIT OVER DOING IT, BUT I WILL KEEP A WATCHFUL EYE IN THE CARIBBEAN DURING THE COMING WEEKS.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

000
ABNT20 KNHC 231123
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon Aug 23 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The Weather Prediction Center is issuing Public Advisories on 
Tropical Depression Henri, located inland over southern New 
England.

A broad low pressure system is producing disorganized showers and 
thunderstorms over the eastern tropical Atlantic more than 700 miles 
west of the Cabo Verde Islands.  Little development is expected  
during the next couple of days due to only marginally conducive 
ocean temperatures.  Thereafter, however, some gradual development 
is possible by the middle to latter part of the week while the 
system moves northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the central 
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

A tropical wave located over the eastern Caribbean Sea is expected 
to form a broad area of low pressure over the southwestern Caribbean 
Sea by late week.  Thereafter, environmental conditions are forecast 
to become favorable for gradual development while the system moves 
west-northwestward over the northwestern Caribbean Sea. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

&&
Public advisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center on 
Tropical Depression Henri can be found under AWIPS header TCPAT3,
WMO header WTNT33 KWNH, and on the web at 
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov

$$
Forecaster Stewart