RTW TRACKING THE TROPICS UPDATE AUG 7, 2021

 

INVESTIGATION 92L HAS TAKEN A TRACK NORTH FOR NOW INTO AN AREA WITH NO DRY AIR.  THIS IS TEMPORARY AND A TRACK BACK TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED.  HOWEVER, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AHEAD OF 92L ARE NOT FAVORABLE AND IT LOOKS LIKE THIS SYSTEM WILL BE SHORT LIVED.

NEW 93L HAS A BETTER CHANCE IF IT TRACKS SOUTH OF THE DRY AIR TO THE NORTH AND STAYS ON A TRACK INTO THE CARIBBEAN.  IT DOES NOT SEEM THAT IS WHAT WILL HAPPEN AS MODELS TRACK THIS SYSTEM NORTH IN TIME.  HOWEVER, THE 18z GFS DEVELOPS 93L AND TURNS IT AWAY FROM THE EAST COAST OF THE U.S..

AS FOR THE NO NUMBER INVEST, THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT STAND A CHANCE IF IT TRACKS NORTH EITHER, HOWEVER SOME MODELS TAKE A WEAK SYSTEM INTO THE CARIBBEAN IN TIME AND DEVELOPS SOME IN THE GULF OF MEXICO.

RTW

477 
ABNT20 KNHC 071730
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sat Aug 7 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low 
pressure located a little more than 100 miles south of the 
southwesternmost Cabo Verde Islands have increased today.  Some 
gradual additional development is possible during the next day or 
so but strong upper-level winds and cooler waters are likely to 
prevent significant development after that time. The system is 
expected to move generally west-northwestward to northwestward 
across the eastern tropical Atlantic at 10 to 15 mph.  Regardless 
of development, locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds are 
possible over portions of the southernmost Cabo Verde Islands 
tonight and Sunday. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. 
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

A small but well-defined area of low pressure located over the 
tropical Atlantic about a thousand miles west of the Cabo Verde 
Islands continues to produce limited shower activity. Environmental 
conditions are expected to become a little more favorable for 
gradual development over the next several days, and this system 
could become a tropical depression by the middle of next week.  
The system is forecast to drift toward the west-southwest or west 
during the next couple of days, and then move a little faster 
toward the west-northwest early next week. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. 
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

A tropical wave located over the west-central tropical Atlantic 
is producing limited shower and thunderstorm activity.  Significant 
development of this system is not anticipated as it moves 
west-northwestward across the Lesser Antilles and eastern Caribbean 
Sea during the early to middle part of next week. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brown 

STORM INVEST 92L

STORM INVEST 93L