RTW TRACKING THE TROPICS UPDATE AUG 9, 2021

 

INVEST 93L DOESN'T SEEM TO HAVE MUCH OF A CHANCE FOR DEVELOPMENT AS LONG AS 94L REMAINS CLOSE BY.  93L IS LACKING THUNDERSTORMS AND DRY AIR SURROUNDS THIS WEATHER SYSTEM.

AS FOR INVEST 94L IT IS IN A POCKET OF MOISTURE THAT IS ALLOWING FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AND MAKING FOR A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT.  WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS SYSTEM CLOSELY AS IT TRACKS WEST-NORTHWEST DURING THE WEEK.

RTW

000
ABNT20 KNHC 091146
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon Aug 9 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Showers and thunderstorms have become more concentrated this morning 
in association with a low pressure system located about 150 miles 
east of Barbados. Environmental conditions are expected to be 
conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression is 
likely to form later today or tonight while the low moves 
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.  The disturbance is forecast to 
reach portions of the Lesser Antilles tonight, then move near the 
Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Tuesday, and be near Hispaniola 
around the middle of this week.  Tropical storm watches or warnings 
could be required today with shorter-than-normal lead times for 
portions of the Lesser Antilles, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto 
Rico.  In addition, heavy rains and flooding are likely for the 
Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico.  Interests in 
those areas should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms have changed little in 
association with an elongated low pressure area located several 
hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles.  Development of this 
system is becoming less likely during the next few days while it 
moves toward the west or west-southwest at around 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. 
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Latto/Brown

12z GUIDANCE MODELS

06z GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBER