RTW TRACKING THE TROPICS UPDATE INVEST 91L...SEPT 6, 2021 06:25 PM EDT

 

INVEST 91L STILL IN A HOSTILE WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT.  ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM WOULD BE IN THE CENTRAL GULF IF AT ALL.  SHEAR IS LOW AND WATER TEMPS ARE WARM ENOUGH FOR DEVELOPMENT.  

INTENSITY MODELS CALL FOR A DEPRESSION OR A TROPICAL STORM.  REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING PLENTY OF MOISTURE WITH IT AND IT COULD CAUSE FLOODING AS IT TRACKS OVER THE SOUTHEAST.

MODELS ARE USELESS SINCE WE HAVE NO ACTUAL LOW CENTER FIX.  SO GUIDANCE IS ALL OVER THE PLACE.  A GENERAL TRACK TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST IN THE COMING DAYS.

RTW

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

PRECIPITABLE WATER MODEL