RTW TRACKING THE TROPICS UPDATE SEPT 11, 2021...03:36 PM EDT

INVEST 94L NEEDS TO BE MONITORED BY TEXAS AND LOUISIANA AS THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING OVER WARMER WATERS AND WILL BRING HEAVY RAINS.  

• THIS SYSTEM HAS A 80% CHANCE 48 HRS AND 90% CHANCE 5-DAYS.
  

• AS OF THE 12Z MODEL RUN GFS TAKES THIS SYSTEM OFFSHORE THEN MAKES LANDFALL LOWER SOUTHEAST TEXAS OR SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA.  EURO MAKES LANDFALL OVER MEXICO SOUTH OF THE TEXAS MEXICO BORDER.

• GFS SUGGEST 2-3 FT OF RAIN NEXT 10-DAYS, FOR OF A PORTION OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND LOUISIANA.  EURO ALSO SHOWS 2-3FT OF RAINS NORTHWARD OVER TEXAS AND LOUISIANA AS WELL.
  

• GFS CALLS FOR A CAT 1 AND EURO A DEPRESSION OR TROPICAL STORM.  

• PLEASE NOTE THAT MODELS WILL CHANGE AND AT THIS TIME MONITOR CLOSELY AND BE READY FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF FLOODING RAINS THAT WILL GO THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK.  THIS MEANS POSSIBILITY OF URBAN FLASH FLOODING AND MAYBE STORM SURGE FLOODING IF THIS DISTURBANCE CRANKS UP TO HURRICANE.

FUTURE NEW STORM INVEST NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS COULD SPIN UP WITH THE HELP OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW, TROPICAL WAVE AND A SURFACE TROUGH I BEEN MONITOR THE PAST FEW DAYS.  IF IT DOES DEVELOP CAROLINA NORTHWARD COULD SEE A TROPICAL SYSTEM AFFECTING THE COAST THE COAST.  

• THIS NEW INVEST HAS A 0% CHANCE 48 HRS AND A 20% CHANCE 5-DAYS.
  

INVEST 93L EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED.  

• IT HAS A 50% CHANCE 48 HRS AND 70% CHANCE 5-DAYS.

• THIS IS A HIGH LATITUDE TRACKING SYSTEM AND WILL MORE THAN LIKELY TRACK WEST THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC.

AS FOR THE FUTURE NEW INVEST SOUTH OF INVEST 93L, THIS IS THE SYSTEM TO WATCH NEXT AS MOST OF THE MODELS SEEM TO SUGGEST A HURRICANE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AS IT TRACKS FURTHER WEST BEING THAT THIS IS A LOWER LATITUDE SYSTEM THAT TENDS TO TRACK FURTHER WEST ALONG THE OUTER RIDGE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE.  I WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS SYSTEM INTO NEXT WEEK.