RTW TRACKING THE TROPICS UPDATE... SEPT 4, 2021

 

91L NOT WELL ORGANIZED HOWEVER IF IT TRACK NORTH OVER THE WARM GULF WATERS IT COULD BECOME A DEPRESSION OR STORM.  WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS WEATHER SYSTEM.

RTW

000
ABNT20 KNHC 041747
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sat Sep 4 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane 
Larry, located over the central tropical Atlantic about 1100 miles 
east of the Leeward Islands. 

A weak surface trough over portions of the western Yucatan Peninsula 
of Mexico is producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm 
activity.  The disturbance is forecast to move northwestward over 
the southwestern Gulf of Mexico on Sunday, then moved northward or 
northeastward over the western or central Gulf of Mexico Monday and 
Tuesday.  Unfavorable upper-level winds are expected to limit 
development through Monday, but environmental conditions could 
become marginally favorable for some gradual development on Tuesday 
or Wednesday.  Regardless of development, locally heavy rains are 
possible over portions of the Yucatan Peninsula and northern Central 
America through Sunday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. 
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven