Thursday, September 9, 2021

RTW TRACKING THE TROPICS UPDATE...SEPT 9, 2021...10:16 AME EDT

 

NEW INVEST /TROPICAL WAVE THAT WILL EMERGE OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA HAS A 50% CHANCE FOR DEVELOPMENT.  AT THIS TIME AREAS TO THE NORTHEAST OF WHERE THIS WAVE IS FORECAST TO TRACK OVER, THE SEA SURFACE TEMPS ARE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT.  IF THIS SYSTEM TRACKS WEST THEN TEMPS ARE WARMER AND MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT.

AS FOR THE INVEST OVER CENTRAL AMERICA THERE IS A 30% CHANCE FOR DEVELOPMENT AS IT EMERGES OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WHERE TEMPS ARE OCEAN TEMPS ARE FAVORABLE.

RTW

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

000
ABNT20 KNHC 091146
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Sep 9 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane 
Larry, located over the western Atlantic a few hundred miles 
east-southeast of Bermuda, and on Tropical Depression Mindy, 
located inland over southeastern Georgia. 

The northern portion of a tropical wave over northeastern 
Honduras and the western Caribbean Sea is forecast to emerge over 
the southern Bay of Campeche on Saturday.  Environmental conditions 
are expected to be conducive to support some gradual development of 
the system before it moves over mainland Mexico early next week. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

A strong tropical wave is expected to emerge off of the west coast 
of Africa on Saturday.  Environmental conditions are forecast to be 
conducive for development thereafter, and a tropical depression 
could form by early next week as it moves west-northwestward over 
the far eastern Atlantic near the Cabo Verde Islands.  
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Mindy are issued under WMO 
header WTNT33 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT3. 
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Mindy are issued under 
WMO header WTNT23 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT3.

$$
Forecaster Pasch/Hagen

 







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