...AGATHA GETTING STRONGER AS ASHE SLOWLY TRACKAS NORTH TOWARD THE SOUTHERN MEXICO COAST...

 

Agatha continues the strengthen as the cyclone moves toward the southern Mexican coast.  Models are not very reliable, spread out and all over the place. However, the trend has been north, crossing over into the Bay of Campeche; Southern Gulf of Mexico, and a slow track toward the northeast.  We continue monitoring during the first week of June for tropical cyclone development in the Gulf or the Northwest Caribbean.  NHC is giving formation chance in the Southern Gulf Low 20% within 5-days.

RTW

000
ABNT20 KNHC 281716
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sat May 28 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Southwest Gulf of Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure is 
expected to form over the 
southern part of the Bay of Campeche by the middle of next week. 
Afterward, some gradual development is possible while the system 
drifts generally eastward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

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National Hurricane Center Public Advisory