...LATEST TROPICAL OUTLOOK...

Here is the latest 0800 PM Tropical Outlook.  Probability goes up to Med 50% chance.

Upper level wind shear still unfavorable in the Gulf and the Northwest Caribbean.  Sea Surface Temperature are favorable accept for a small pocket north of the Yucatan.  Regardless of this if the shear is strong this system could struggle as it tracks toward Florida.  We will continue to monitor it closely.  

RTW

705 
ABNT20 KNHC 302333
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Mon May 30 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Near the Yucatan Peninsula:
A large and complex area of low pressure is expected to develop near 
the Yucatan Peninsula and the northwestern Caribbean Sea in a couple 
of days, partially related to the remnants of Hurricane Agatha from 
the eastern Pacific. Thereafter, this system is forecast to move 
slowly northeastward, and a tropical depression could form in the 
northwestern Caribbean or southeastern Gulf of Mexico by the latter 
part of this week.  Regardless of development, locally heavy 
rainfall is likely across portions of southern Mexico, the Yucatan 
Peninsula, Guatemala, Belize, and western Cuba through the week. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin