...TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER FLORIDA AND HEAVY RAINS STILL EXPECTED FOR PORTION OF CENTRAL AMERICA...

 

Tropical Outlook:

• Tropical Moisture still moving over Florida today and the heaviest is presently over Central Florida.  Heavy to strong storms over western Cuba and some of that could track north this afternoon.  Localized flooding possible with the stronger storm cells.  There is a Severe weather Potential for a portion Florida see SPC Msoscale Discussion 0839 below.

• Central America still in store for heavy rains as the Central America Gyre enhances rain and storms in this region.  See NHC Special Feature below.
  

• Strong cluster of storms northeast Nicaragua, Honduras producing heavy downpours, gusting winds and lightning.

• Strong area of storms off shore the southwest coast of Africa being enhanced by the African monsoon trough in this area.    

National Hurricane Center Trop Discussion

 Tropical Waves:

• Tropical Wave #1 is tracking west toward the Yucatan and there are no signs of organization.
  

• Tropical Wave #2 is near 46°-45° west and there are moderate showers and storms to the west and east of the waves axis.  There are no signs of tropical cyclone formation.

Storm Prediction Center

Mesoscale Discussion 0839
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1031 AM CDT Fri May 20 2022

   Areas affected...much of southern Florida

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 201531Z - 201800Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Scattered to numerous storms are expected by afternoon,
   with locally damaging wind gusts or marginally severe hail.

   DISCUSSION...A moist and unstable air mass is already in place
   across southern FL, with PWAT over 2.00" and no capping inversion.
   Early day storms have left a cooled air mass across the central
   Peninsula, with heating continuing to the south, which is resulting
   in MUCAPE over 3000 J/kg. Storms are already forming off the Gulf
   and Atlantic coasts, with expanding showers over land. Just 1-2 more
   hours of heating will likely result in a rapid expansion of
   convection, perhaps spreading northwestward with strong outflow.
   However, wind fields are weak and storm motion may be erratic.
   Water-loaded downdrafts may produce locally damaging gusts, and the
   strong instability and cool midlevel temperatures may support brief
   periods of marginal hail.

   ..Jewell/Hart.. 05/20/2022

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

National Hurricane Center  

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A Central American Gyre (CAG) is developing across Central 
America and the adjacent southwest Caribbean this morning. The 
monsoon trough has begun to shift northward, increasing SW winds 
and advecting tropical moisture over Central America. Heavy 
rainfall has begun in the SW Caribbean and portions of Nicaragua,
Guatemala and Honduras. Extreme rainfall is possible across the 
Pacific coasts of Central America, and also over southern Honduras
and northeast Nicaragua. There is potential for flash flooding 
and mudslides, especially across mountainous terrain. This event 
is expected to last through early next week. Please refer to 
products issued by your local weather service for more 
information.