...TROPICAL OUTLOOK FOR AGATHA'S REMNANT FORMATION CHANCE UPGRADED TO HIGH 70% WITHIN 5-DAYS...

Agatha's remnant now have a formation chance within 5-days high 70%.  Still monitoring the wind shear and sea surface temps as the Low moves over the Yucatan and into the Gulf waters which are warm.  I do believe we could see plenty of rain from this system but not a hurricane making landfall along the west coast.  If it were to strengthen to a hurricane it would more than likely be off shore the east coast of Florida.  Intensity shows a cat 1 hurricane but that is only one models suggesting that. I say tropical depression with plenty of rain and you can't rule out a weak tropical storm.  Keep monitoring NHC for the latest updates.  As always I will keep you posted as well.

RTW 

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Tue May 31 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Near the Yucatan Peninsula and Southeastern Gulf of Mexico: 
A large and complex area of low pressure is expected to develop near 
the Yucatan Peninsula and the northwestern Caribbean Sea in a couple 
of days, partially related to the remnants of Agatha from the 
eastern Pacific.  Despite strong upper-level winds over the area, 
this system is likely to become a tropical depression while it 
moves northeastward over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and 
southeastern Gulf of Mexico late Thursday or Friday.  Regardless of 
development, locally heavy rainfall is likely across portions of 
southeastern Mexico, the Yucatan Peninsula, Guatemala, and Belize 
during the next couple of days, spreading across western Cuba, 
southern Florida, and the Florida Keys on Friday and Saturday.  
Interests in the Yucatan Peninsula, western Cuba, the Florida Keys 
and the Florida Peninsula should monitor the progress of this 
system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

Forecaster Brown/Bucci 

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