...TROPICAL OUTLOOK MAY 24, 2022...

 

Other than the East Pacific the Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico remains quiet for now.  I will add NHC outlook below.

000
AXNT20 KNHC 241633
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Tue May 24 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1600 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A weak eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 29W/30W from 02N 
to 10N, moving W at 10 kt. This feature remains poorly organized 
and drier Saharan air is limiting shower or thunderstorm 
activity especially on the northern half of the wave. Scattered 
moderate convection is noted along the southern half from 00N to 
05N between 29W-31W. 

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 71W from 14N southward, 
moving westward 15 kt. A few thunderstorms are near the trough
axis over Lake Maracaibo in Venezuela, while no significant 
weather is occurring over water.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the Liberia coast near 06N11W to 
02N24W to 01N36W. The ITCZ continues from 01N36W to the coast of 
Brazil near 00N50W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is 
noted from 01N-08N and E of 20W. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 01N-04N between 21W-46W. 

GULF OF MEXICO...

A sharp mid to upper trough is supporting this area of weather, 
interacting with a surface trough analyzed off the Texas coast. A 
1010 mb surface low is analyzed near 27N96W off the coast of 
Corpus Christi, TX with a trough extending south of the low to 
24N97W. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted across the
NW Gulf from 24N-30N and W of 92W. Some of these storms are 
considered severe, with frequent lightning and gusts to gale force
possible. Please see the local NWS Texas offices for more 
information on any special marine warnings being issued near the 
coast. 

Another trough is analyzed in the eastern Gulf from 25N88W to 
30N85W. Isolated thunderstorms are noted across the eastern Gulf 
W of 88W. A surface ridge extends from the western Atlantic into 
the northeast Gulf. This pattern is supporting mainly moderate SE 
winds and 3-5 ft seas across the Gulf, except for fresh to strong
SE winds off the South Texas/northeast Mexico coast. Seas across 
the Gulf range 3-5 ft with higher waves near the strongest 
convective activity in the NW Gulf. 

For the forecast, the trough and the convective activity in the 
NW Gulf will weaken by late this afternoon over the area. Fresh 
to strong southerly return flow is expected again tonight in the 
far western Gulf as the gradient between high pressure over the 
western Atlantic and lower pressure over Mexico tightens. Winds 
will also pulse to fresh to strong near the N coast of the 
Yucatan Peninsula this evening and Wed evening. Moderate to 
fresh SE winds will prevail elsewhere through Wed with moderate 
seas. Looking ahead, a cold front is expected to move into the 
western Gulf Wed night and weaken as it reaches from the NE Gulf 
to the eastern Bay of Campeche on Fri. It will be followed by 
gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas Fri and Sat 
as weak high pressure ridging settles over the basin.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

There is a mid-level trough over the Yucatan Peninsula with a 
surface trough extending across the Gulf of Honduras, from the 
northern Yucatan coast southward to northern Honduras. Scattered 
moderate convection is noted in the SW basin along the monsoon 
trough, S of 14N and W of 77W. Scattered moderate convection is
also noted across the Gulf of Honduras. Scattered thunderstorms 
are observed off the western Cuba coast and in the eastern 
Caribbean. Fresh winds are noted in the central Caribbean and Gulf
of Honduras with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere. Seas range 
3-5 ft across most of the basin with upwards of 9 ft north of 
Colombia. 

For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will maintain 
moderate to fresh E to SE winds across the Caribbean, pulsing to
fresh to strong north of Honduras tonight through Thu night. 
Fresh to strong winds will also pulse off Colombia and Venezuela 
at night starting tonight and lasting through the week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1021 mb high pressure is centered near 30N73W, leading to 
fairly benign weather across the western Atlantic. Scattered 
thunderstorms are noted off the northern coast of the Dominican 
Republic with isolated thunderstorms in the Straits of Florida. 
Light to gentle anticyclonic winds are near the high pressure 
center with 3-5 ft seas. Farther south, moderate to locally fresh
ESE winds extend from north of Hispaniola through the Bahamas to 
South Florida, including the Straits of Florida. A weak 1015 mb 
surface low analyzed near 28N63W is generating an area of 
moderate cyclonic flow. In the central Atlantic, a dissipating 
stationary front extends from 31N42W to 31N56W. A trough extends 
from 31N48W to 28N55W. Moderate to fresh SE winds continue on the 
east side of the dying front, N of 28N and W of 39W. Seas range 
5-7 ft with a component of N swell. Gentle to moderate winds and
3-5 ft seas are noted elsewhere west of 35W. Farther east, winds 
are mainly gentle to moderate with fresh NE winds near the Canary 
Islands. Seas are 5-7 ft E of 35W. 

For the forecast west of 55W, the high pressure extending from 
near Bermuda to Georgia will remain nearly stationary through 
Wed night while gradually weakening. The area of high pressure 
will shift eastward Thu through Fri night ahead of a cold front 
that will move across the southeastern U.S. The associated 
pressure gradient will allow for mainly gentle to moderate winds 
across the region through the period, except for pulsing of 
moderate to fresh east winds from north of Hispaniola through 
the Bahamas.

$$
AReinhart

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ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Tue May 24 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Central portion of the eastern Pacific: 
A trough of low pressure located several hundred miles off the 
coast of southwestern Mexico continues to produce disorganized 
showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions could support 
some slow development during the next couple of days while this 
system moves little.  Upper-level winds are forecast to become too 
strong for development late this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

2. South of the Gulf of Tehuantepec:
A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms centered a 
few hundred miles south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec is associated 
with a surface trough.  Environmental conditions are forecast to 
be conducive for further development, and a tropical depression is 
likely to form late this week or this weekend while the system 
moves west-northwestward or northwestward at 5 to 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

Forecaster Blake