...A LOOK AT THE 12Z MODEL RUN FOR THE GFS AND THE ECMWF (EURO) MODEL...

 

91L is still to far out at sea and model run will change in intensity and tracks. This is the Global Forecast System or (GFS) as we know it. The GFS is showing 91L being steered back out to sea as it tracks east of the of Florida. Once again this is a long range forecast and it is subject for error.

As for the Euro Model know as the (ECMWF) this model begs to differ from what the GFS 12 z model run. This model run shows 91L stalling near the Grand Bahama Islands similar to what hurricane Dorian. This would be due to a blocking high over the Northeast U.S. and a weak steering current from a High pressure over the in the Atlantic. This is definitely a disturbing forecast but once again, it is only a forecast, and it is subject for error past 5 days. Just continue to be vigilant and ready in case this system tracks our way.