Ralph's Tropical Weather-RTW: ...STORM INVEST 91L DISORGANIZED AS IT CONTINUES TO TRACK THROUGH DRY AIR AND SOON UPPER LEVEL SHEAR...92L MEANDERING NEAR AND UPPER LOW ALSO BEING SHEARED...

STORM INVESTIGATION 91L AIR IS STILL TRACKING THROUGH DRY AIR AND WILL BE MOVING THROUGH WIND SHEAR IN A DAY OR SO. THE SYSTEM REMAINS DISORGANIZED BUT COULD DEVELOP SOME AS IT TRACKS NORTH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

ECMWF (EURO) AND GFS (AMERICAN) MODELS ARE BOTH HINTING AT A TRACK TO THE NORTH AND EAST OUT TO SEA AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKING EAST NORTH 91L WILL PRODUCE A WEAKNESS EAST OF THE UNITED STATES.

NOTE THESE ARE LONG RANGE FORECAST AND IS SUBJECT FOR ERROR, SO WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

92L IS BEING SHEARED BY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CLOSE TO 92L. DEVELOPMENT IF ANY WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR. THIS SYSTEM IS ALSO CAUSING A WEAKNESS IN THE HIGH PRESSURE IN THIS AREA.

THE CARIBBEAN INVEST HAS SOME CHANCE FOR DEVELOPMENT AND A TRACK TOWARD THE WEST TO NORTHWEST.

THE AFRICAN STORM INVEST WAVE HAS SOME CHANCE FOR DEVELOPMENT AS IT MOVES OFF THE COAST AND TRACKS NORTHWEST AND BACK TO THE WEST. THIS IS A HIGH LATITUDE SYSTEM AND USUALLY THESE SYSTEM TRACK NORTHWEST QUICKER THAN A LOW LATITUDE SYSTEM.

WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR!

RTW

000
ABNT20 KNHC 291119
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon Aug 29 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Central Tropical Atlantic:
A broad area of low pressure over the central tropical Atlantic 
is producing a large area of disorganized cloudiness and showers.
Although environmental conditions are only marginally favorable, 
some gradual development of this system is expected over the next 
several days and a tropical depression is likely to form later this 
week.  The disturbance is forecast to move slowly toward the west 
and then west-northwest at 5 to 10 mph, toward the adjacent waters 
of the northern Leeward Islands.  Additional information on this 
system can be found in high seas forecasts issued by the National 
Weather Service. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

Central Subtropical Atlantic:
A small low pressure system located about 600 miles east of Bermuda
continues to produce limited shower activity.  Strong upper-level 
winds and dry air are expected to limit significant development of 
this system while it drifts southward and southwestward over the 
central Atlantic during the next couple of days, and likely 
dissipate by the end of the week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa 
this evening or early Tuesday.  Some gradual development of this
system is possible after that time while it moves generally 
westward to west-northwestward across the far eastern tropical 
Atlantic. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

Northwestern Caribbean Sea:
A trough of low pressure could develop over the northwestern 
Caribbean Sea later this week.  Environmental conditions could 
support some slow development of the system thereafter while it 
moves generally west-northwestward over the northwestern Caribbean 
Sea and toward the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 
KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Roberts