...FIONA GROWS AND STRENGTHENS A BIT AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...

FIONA GROWS IN SIZE AND STRENGTHENS SOME AS IT MOVES OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.

FIONA IS STILL FORECAST TO MAKE THAT TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AS A UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIPS SOUTHEAST OVER THE ATLANTIC.  THERE IS A STORM INVEST EAST OF THE CAROLINA'S  ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE AND A DECAYING STATIONARY FRONT.  THIS WEATHER SYSTEM IS PRODUCING A WEAKNESS IN THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AND LEAVING OPEN A GAP FOR FIONA TO MOVE THROUGH AS THE DIP IN THE JET STREAM MOVES IN NORTH OF FIONA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.  

MOST OF THE MODELS AGREE ON THAT TURN ACCEPT FOR THOSE MODELS THAT DETECT A WEAKER FIONA ENTERING INTO THE ATLANTIC.  THOSE MODELS TEND TO HAVE A WESTWARD TRACK.  

THE NEW EXPERIMENTAL NOAA MODELS (HAFSA AND HAFSS) MODELS TAKE FIONA WEST NORTHWEST TOWARD THE BAHAMAS.  IF FIONA CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN IN THE EAST CARIBBEAN THEN THAT TURN NORTHWARD WILL OCCUR.  BUT IF FIONA MOVES OVER DOMINICAN AND THE MOUNTAINS OF DOMINICAN THEN A WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK WOULD BE MORE LOGICAL.

I WILL KEEP YOU POSTED OVER THE WEEKEND.

RTW

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

...FIONA A LITTLE STRONGER... ...HEAVY RAINS AND TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...

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11:00 PM AST Fri Sep 16
Location: 16.6°N 62.2°W
Moving: W at 14 mph
Min pressure: 1002 mb
Max sustained: 60 mph