...IAN EYE WOBBLED AND BIT TO THE EAST EARLIER AND IT DID IT A SECOND TIME A BIT AGO...TO ME THAT IS NO LONGER A WOBBLE BUT A TRACK TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST...

 

EARLIER TO THIS MORNING THERE WAS A NOTICEABLE EYE WOBBLE TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST.  NHC HAD TO ADJUST THEIR TRACK TWICE TO COMPENSATE FOR THE TRACK TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST.  WOBBLE IN STRONG HURRICANES ARE NORMAL, HOWEVER, A WOBBLE IS WHAT IT MEANS LEFT TO RIGHT AND BACK TO LEFT.  IN THIS CASE THIS LOOKS LIKE A RESPONSE TO THE TROUGH TO IAN'S NORTH FORCING IT TO TURN MORE NORTHEAST EARLY ON AS SOME OF THE MODELS HAVE BEEN SUGGESTING.  FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS THE ICON, UKMET AND THE EURO HAVE FORECAST TAMPA LANDFALL TO POINTS SOUTH OF THERE, ANYWHERE FROM SARASOTA TO CAPE CORAL. THIS IS STILL POSSIBLE BUT ONCE AGAIN WE GO ON WHAT NHC FORECAST CALL FOR. THIS IS THE REASON FOR THE CONE OF ERROR.

THIS IS WHY I LIKE TO MONITOR DIFFERENT MODELS FOR SHIFTS TO THE LEFT OR RIGHT.  PERSISTENCE IN THE MODELS ARE KEY AT TIMES SO YOU CAN GET AN IDEA OF WHERE THIS STORM MAY END UP.  IT DOES NOT WORK ALL THE TIME, BUT SOMETIMES IT DOES.

I ALSO NOTED A SOUTHWARD SHIFT IN PAST MODEL FORECAST WHICH COULD MEAN A MORE SOUTHWARD LANDFALL FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST BUT NOT FOR SURE. MODELS USED FOR THIS ANIMATION ARE THE GFS, EURO AND THE ICON.

CONTINUE TO MONITOR NHC FORECAST UPDATES. 

BE STORM READY!

RTW

...POWERFUL HURRICANE IAN EMERGES INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO... ...NEW WATCHES AND WARNINGS ISSUED FOR FLORIDA, GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA...

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11:00 AM EDT Tue Sep 27
Location: 23.0°N 83.5°W
Moving: N at 10 mph
Min pressure: 963 mb
Max sustained: 115 mph

 

NOTE THIS MODEL SHOW FORECAST POSITION FROM THE EURO, GFS, AND THE ICOM MODEL AND YOU CAN SEE A SOUTHWARD SHIFT.