STILL MONITORING TWO STORM INVESTIGATION ONE EAST OF THE U.S. AND THE BAHAMAS AND THE OTHER IN THE CARIBBEAN!

STILL MONITORING TWO INVESTIGATION THE ONE IN THE CARIBBEAN HAS A HIGH CHANCE FOR DEVELOPMENT 70% WITHIN 5 DAYS OVER THE WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK.  

THIS SYSTEM WILL BE HELD DOWN IN THE CARIBBEN BY HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH.  

IT WILL ALSO BE MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL AND WEST CARIBBEAN WHERE IT WILL MEET UP WITH DRY AIR. SO NO RAPID STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED.

THE SYSTEM NEAR THE BAHAMAS WILL ENCOUNTER UPPER LEVEL WIND SHEAR AND DEVELOPMENT IS LOW.

RTW

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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Fri Oct 28 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Eastern Caribbean:
A broad area of low pressure over the southeastern Caribbean Sea 
is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms 
extending from the Windward Islands west-northwestward for several 
hundred miles.  Environmental conditions are forecast to be
conducive for gradual development over the next few days, and a 
tropical depression is likely to form this weekend or early 
next week while the disturbance moves slowly westward or 
west-northwestward over the central Caribbean Sea.  Regardless of 
development, locally heavy rainfall is possible over portions of 
the Lesser Antilles, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico through 
this weekend. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

2. Southwestern Atlantic:
A large area of cloudiness and showers extending from near Bermuda 
southward over the western Atlantic for several hundred miles is 
associated with a trough of low pressure. A broad area of low 
pressure is expected to form along the northern portion of the 
trough axis later today, but environmental conditions are forecast 
to be only marginally conducive, and any development should be slow 
to occur.  By late Saturday, upper-level winds are forecast to 
become even less favorable for development, and the low is expected 
to begin interacting with an approaching frontal system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Brown

MID TO UPPER LEVEL WIND SHEAR AFFECTING THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN