...THE ATLANTIC MAYBE FINALLY SHUTTING DOWN FOR THE SEASON... ENSEMBLES SHOWING LESS AND LESS ACTIVITY AS WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL WINDS INCREASE OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC...

 

ENSEMBLE MODELS SUGGESTING THAT THE ATLANTIC MAYBE SHUTTING DOWN FOR THE SEASON.  WE ARE SEEING LESS ACTIVITY COMING OFF THE AFRICAN COAST AS WESTERLY SHEAR INCREASES OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC.

WE WILL STILL KEEP AN EYE ON THE CARIBBEAN SINCE THAT IS WHERE MOST STORMS DEVELOP IN OCTOBER. 

HOWEVER, THERE ARE ALSO INDICATIONS OF COLD AIR COMING SOUTH IN THE WEEKS AHEAD THAT COULD BRING A WINTER STORM LIKE SYSTEM THAT COULD USHER IN COLD ARCTIC AIR AND SNOW OVER THE EASTERN U.S.  WITH THIS COLD AIR MASS TRACKING SOUTHEAST, THE FRONT WILL CLASH WITH WARM AIR FROM THE GULF, AND PRODUCE A SQUALL LINE THAT COULD SPAWN SEVERE STORMS AND TORNADO FOR THE SOUTHEAST.  

SO AS THIS COLD AIR BEGINS TO SEEP IN SOUTHWARD, COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BEHIND THE FRONTS BLOCKING TROPICAL CYCLONES FROM TRACKING NORTH.

THIS IS NOT A FORECAST JUST WHAT I AM SEEING IN THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

RTW