...MONITORING A DISTURBANCE IN THE ATLANTIC THAT HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR SUB-TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE COMING DAYS...

 

A DISTURBANCE IN THE ATLANTIC THAT MOST OF THE MODELS HAVE BEEN HINTING AT DEVELOPMENT IS PRODUCING GALE FORCE WINDS AND LIGHTNING.  

THIS SYSTEM IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT MEANDERS IN THIS AREA DURING A DAY OR SO, BEFORE IT MAKES A COMPLETE COUNTER CLOCKWISE LOOP, AND BEGINS A TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST.  

BOTH THE GFS AND THE EURO MODEL ARE FORECASTING A LARGE AND POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM AS IT TRACKIS NORTHEAST IN THE COMING DAYS.  HIGH SEAS AND LARGE SWELLS WILL BE A PROBLEM FOR THE SHIPPING LANES. 

THIS SYSTEM IS NOT AND WILL NOT BE A THREAT TO THE U.S. EAST COAST, BAHAMAS, BERMUDA, OR THE CARIBBEAN ISLANDS.  HOWEVER, THE AZORES ISLANDS WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS SYSTEM CLOSELY, S IT WILL HAVE A LARGE WIND FIELD RADIUS..

RTW

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Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
900 AM EST Mon Dec 5 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued to discuss the potential 
for subtropical development this week over the central Atlantic.

1. A large area of low pressure located over the central subtropical 
Atlantic about 750 miles northeast of the northern Leeward Islands 
is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  Environmental 
conditions appear conducive for this system to acquire some 
subtropical characteristics while it drifts northeastward during the 
next few days.  By Thursday night or Friday, however, the low is 
expected to move over cooler waters, ending its chances of becoming 
a subtropical cyclone.  Additional information on this system, 
including gale warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued 
by the National Weather Service.  The next Special Tropical Weather 
Outlook on this system will be issued by 9 PM EST today or 
earlier.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 
KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

Forecaster Cangialosi/Pasch

A LOOK AT WHAT EURO SUGGEST IT WILL LOOK LIKE BY THIS SATURDAY.