..SEVERE STORM OUTLOOK FOR TODAY A MARGINAL WITH A CHANCE FOR DAMAGING WINDS..

 

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR DAMAGING WIND GUST, HAIL AND A FAST DROPPING  SHORT LIVED ISOLATED TORNADO FOR TODAY ACCORDING TO THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER.  SEE MORE BELOW AND AT THEIR WEBSITE.

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS TODAY SO STAY TUNED TO  STORM PREDICITION CENTER

RTW

Mesoscale Discussion 0286
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1010 AM CDT Mon Mar 13 2023

   Areas affected...Central FL peninsula

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 131510Z - 131745Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...A few severe storms with some marginally severe hail, a
   few damaging gusts and perhaps a brief tornado are possible across
   the central Florida peninsula though early afternoon. A watch is not
   anticipated.

   DISCUSSION...Scattered storms with some transient supercell
   structures were observed this morning across the central Florida
   peninsula. Per mesoanalysis and the KTBW 12Z RAOB, these storms are
   in an environment characterized by moderate buoyancy (1500-2000 J/kg
   MLCAPE), fairly steep near-surface lapse rates, and effective bulk
   shear of approximately 40-50 kts. Hodographs have some curvature in
   the low levels, particularly with northward extent, but low-level
   shear is relatively weak and should continue to weaken with time,
   given veering surface winds and vertical mixing.

   The stronger updrafts will pose a threat for marginally severe hail.
   While there is some risk for a tornado, the overall tornado threat
   is limited by the weak low-level shear. The bands of convection are
   parallel to the flow, so expect some upscale growth into line
   segments with some threat for damaging gusts. With time, expect
   storms to move eastward offshore into the Atlantic.

   ..Supinie/Smith.. 03/13/2023

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

TODAYS SEVERE STORM UTLOOK (MARGINAL RISK)

THE FOLLOWING AREAS IN THE MARGINAL RISK ZONE:

MARGINAL RISK: Tampa, FL...St. Petersburg, FL...Orlando, FL...Cape Coral, FL...Port St. Lucie, FL...

TODAYS TORNADO PROBABILITY:

2% PROBABILITY: Orlando, FL...Palm Bay, FL...Melbourne, FL...Kissimmee, FL...Sanford, FL...

TODAYS DAMAGING WIND PROBABILITY:

5% PROBABILITY: Tampa, FL...St. Petersburg, FL...Orlando, FL...Cape Coral, FL...Port St. Lucie, FL...

TODAYS HAIL PROBABILITY:

5% PROBABILITY: Tampa, FL...St. Petersburg, FL...Orlando, FL...Cape Coral, FL...Port St. Lucie, FL...

A LOOK INTO THE FUTURE!  THERE IS A 15% CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS ON THURSDAY!

15% CHANCE: Dallas, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Oklahoma City, OK...Tulsa, OK...Arlington, TX...