..SEVERE STORMS, TORNADO, HAIL 2 INCH OR HIGHER, AND DAMAGING WINDS..

 

UPDATE 12:52 PM EDT

Mesoscale Discussion 0290
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1027 AM CDT Thu Mar 16 2023

   Areas affected...portions of southwest into central OK

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 161527Z - 161730Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorm coverage is expected to increase from
   southwest into central OK over the next 1-2 hours. Hail will be the
   main hazard with initial thunderstorms into early afternoon. A watch
   may be needed in the next hour or so.

   DISCUSSION...Areas of deeper convective cells are developing within
   broader area of showers across western OK late this morning ahead of
   a fast, southeastward-advancing surface cold front. An elevated
   mixed-layer noted in 12z regional RAOBs may result in initial
   thunderstorm activity remaining elevated. Also, as the cold front
   quickly progresses southeast, initial storms late this morning into
   midday may quickly become undercut by the front. Forecast RAP/NAM
   soundings indicate some erosion of steeper midlevel lapse rates is
   occurring as early showers move across central OK. However, midlevel
   lapse rates, coupled with favorable shear profiles and modest
   instability, should support a few organized cells/clusters capable
   of producing hail.

   There is some uncertainty in intensity of initial storms in a narrow
   corridor (generally along the I-44/I-40 corridor) in central OK the
   next few hours. However, a greater severe threat, including
   potential for a few tornadoes, is expected just south and east
   across south-central/southeast OK and north TX, where more favorable
   surface-based convection is expected by mid-afternoon. While the
   tornado threat may be lower across the narrow corridor of mainly
   large hail potential across central OK, a watch may be needed in the
   next hour or so.

   ..Leitman/Kerr.. 03/16/2023

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

DAY 1 OUTLOOK.. ENHANCED, SLIGHT AND MARGINAL RISK WITH SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT, TORNADO, DAMAGING HAIL 2.00 INCHES OR HIGHER AND DAMAGING WINDS.

STAY TUNED TO STORM PREDICITION CENTER FOR THE LATEST UPDATES: 

THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARE AT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS:

ENHANCED RISK: Dallas, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Arlington, TX...Plano, TX...Garland, TX...

SLIGHT RISK: Houston, TX...San Antonio, TX...Austin, TX...Shreveport, LA...Pasadena, TX...

MARGINAL RISK: Oklahoma City, OK...Tulsa, OK...Little Rock, AR...Jackson, MS...Lafayette, LA...

STAY TUNED TO STORM PREDICITION CENTER FOR THE LATEST UPDATES: 

THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARE AT RISK FOR TORNADOES:

10% PROBABILITY: Plano, TX...Garland, TX...Mesquite, TX...Richardson, TX...Allen, TX...

5% PROBABILITY: Dallas, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Arlington, TX...Shreveport, LA...Irving, TX...

2% PROBABILITY: San Antonio, TX...Austin, TX...Little Rock, AR...Waco, TX...Killeen, TX...

STAY TUNED TO STORM PREDICITION CENTER FOR THE LATEST UPDATES: 

THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARE AT RISK FOR DAMAGING HAIL 2.00 INCHES OR HIGHER!

SIGNIFICANT SEVERE: Dallas, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Arlington, TX...Plano, TX...Garland, TX...

30% PROBABILITY: Dallas, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Arlington, TX...Plano, TX...Garland, TX...

15% PROBABILITY: San Antonio, TX...Austin, TX...Shreveport, LA...Waco, TX...Killeen, TX...

5% PROBABILITY: Houston, TX...Oklahoma City, OK...Tulsa, OK...Pasadena, TX...Beaumont, TX...

STAY TUNED TO STORM PREDICITION CENTER FOR THE LATEST UPDATES: 

THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARE AT RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS!

30% PROBABILITY: Dallas, TX...Arlington, TX...Plano, TX...Garland, TX...Irving, TX...

15% PROBABILITY: Houston, TX...San Antonio, TX...Austin, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Shreveport, LA...

5% PROBABILITY: Oklahoma City, OK...Tulsa, OK...Little Rock, AR...Jackson, MS...Lafayette, LA...

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK DAYS 1-2