..MESO DISCUSSION 551 ISSUED BY STORM PREDICITION CENTER FOR SOUTHERN FLORIDA..

 

Mesoscale Discussion 0551
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1009 AM CDT Mon Apr 17 2023

   Areas affected...south Florida

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 171509Z - 171645Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...A storm or two may briefly become severe across the
   southern Florida Peninsula over the next few hours. Strong
   thunderstorm gusts or a brief tornado are possible.

   DISCUSSION...Convection is ongoing late this morning both along the
   southwest FL coast and near the southeast coast. An isolated
   supercell west of FLL is likely occurring near an outflow boundary
   and low-level confluence zone. Though both areas of convection are
   being supported by modest large-scale ascent due to a passing weak
   shortwave impulse in southwesterly deep-layer flow. The 12z RAOB
   from MFL indicates steep midlevel lapse rates atop a seasonally
   moist boundary-layer. This is contributing to moderate instability
   across the region. Latest VWP data suggests vertical shear has
   decreased from the time of the morning RAOB, but is likely still
   sufficient for at least transient organized convection, especially
   near the outflow boundary where backed low-level winds will result
   in enhancement of shear. Overall peak in limited severe potential is
   expected over the next couple of hours before the threat diminishes
   through the afternoon. A couple of strong thunderstorm gusts, small
   hail or a brief tornado may accompany this activity in the near
   term. Given the limited potential and short-duration of the threat,
   a watch is not expected at this time.

   ..Leitman/Grams.. 04/17/2023

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MFL...KEY...TBW...

   LAT...LON   26158190 26648129 26698006 26557979 25707984 25288004
               25108044 25198080 25398133 25558169 26158190