..SEVERE STORM OUTLOOK FOR MAY 11, 2023..

 

SEVERE STORM OUTLOOK FOR TODAY CALLS FOR AN ENHANCED, SLIGHT AND MARGINAL RISK FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST U.S..  VISIT THE STORM PREDICITION CENTER FOR THE LATEST SEVERE STORM OUTLOOKS, WATCHES MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS.

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION #761 AND TORNADO WATCH 0210 FOR THIS MORNING:

Mesoscale Discussion 0761
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0900 AM CDT Thu May 11 2023

   Areas affected...northern Louisiana into western Mississippi

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 111400Z - 111630Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...A concentrated area of strong storms will likely persist
   today, with a few severe storms expected.

   DISCUSSION...Storms continue to evolve around an MCS, with a very
   moist and unstable air mass available. Sufficient low-level shear
   exists to support rotation within the stronger cells as they
   propagate around the south and east side of the MCV, with low-level
   shear enhancement from the MCV itself. Winds aloft are weak, but
   low-level SRH is favorable with 850 mb winds over 30 kt. A focused
   area of strong to locally severe storms, including strong gusts or
   marginal hail, will remain possible throughout the day as the air
   mass heats ahead of the MCV.

   ..Jewell/Guyer.. 05/11/2023

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

WOUS64 KWNS 111421
   WOU0

   BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 210
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   925 AM CDT THU MAY 11 2023

   TORNADO WATCH 210 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 PM CDT FOR THE
    FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

   ARC003-017-139-112200-
   /O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0210.230511T1425Z-230511T2200Z/

   AR 
   .    ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

   ASHLEY               CHICOT              UNION               


   LAC009-013-021-025-029-031-035-041-043-049-059-061-065-067-069-
   073-079-081-083-085-107-111-115-123-127-112200-
   /O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0210.230511T1425Z-230511T2200Z/

   LA 
   .    LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE

   AVOYELLES            BIENVILLE           CALDWELL            
   CATAHOULA            CONCORDIA           DE SOTO             
   EAST CARROLL         FRANKLIN            GRANT               
   JACKSON              LA SALLE            LINCOLN             
   MADISON              MOREHOUSE           NATCHITOCHES        
   OUACHITA             RAPIDES             RED RIVER           
   RICHLAND             SABINE              TENSAS              
   UNION                VERNON              WEST CARROLL        
   WINN                 

THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARE AT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS TODAY:

ENHANCED RISK: Oklahoma City, OK...Tulsa, OK...Wichita, KS...Norman, OK...Lawton, OK...

SLIGHT RISK: Jackson, MS...Wichita Falls, TX...Monroe, LA...Salina, KS...Alexandria, LA...

MARGINAL RISK: Fort Worth, TX...New Orleans, LA...Tampa, FL...St. Petersburg, FL...Baton Rouge, LA...

THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARE AT RISK FOR TORNADO TODAY:

Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.

SIGNIFICANT SEVERE: Oklahoma City, OK...Norman, OK...Edmond, OK...Midwest City, OK...Moore, OK...

10% PROBABILITY: Oklahoma City, OK...Tulsa, OK...Wichita, KS...Norman, OK...Lawton, OK...

5% PROBABILITY: Wichita Falls, TX...Monroe, LA...Salina, KS...Alexandria, LA...Muskogee, OK...

2% PROBABILITY: Fort Worth, TX...Jackson, MS...Topeka, KS...Denton, TX...Lewisville, TX...

THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARE AT RISK FOR THUNDERSTORM DAMAGING WINDS TODAY:

15% PROBABILITY: Oklahoma City, OK...Tulsa, OK...Wichita, KS...Jackson, MS...Norman, OK...

5% PROBABILITY: Fort Worth, TX...New Orleans, LA...Tampa, FL...St. Petersburg, FL...Baton Rouge, LA...

THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARE AT RISK FOR THUNDERSTORM DAMAGING WINDS TODAY:

Probability of one inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of two inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point.

SIGNIFICANT SEVERE: Oklahoma City, OK...Tulsa, OK...Wichita, KS...Norman, OK...Wichita Falls, TX...

30% PROBABILITY: Oklahoma City, OK...Norman, OK...Lawton, OK...Edmond, OK...Midwest City, OK...

15% PROBABILITY: Tulsa, OK...Wichita, KS...Wichita Falls, TX...Broken Arrow, OK...Salina, KS...

5% PROBABILITY: Fort Worth, TX...New Orleans, LA...Baton Rouge, LA...Montgomery, AL...Columbus, GA...