I am still monitoring a storm investigation in the eastern gulf of Mexico associated with a stationary upper low.
- Chance for development per NHC is low within 2 to 7 days.
- Forecast models are showing a disorganized low moving across southern florida with possible gusty winds and heavy rains which could produced localized flooding.
Stay tuned to national hurricane center for updates as well as here as i will continue to publish more frequent as conditions warrant.
The National Weather Service in Miami has issued a flood watch for a portion of South Florida through Friday read details below.
RTW
Rounds of heavy rainfall are likely over the next several days as a weak low pressure system slowly approaches the region.
FLZ063-066>068-071>074-168-172>174-010900-
/O.NEW.KMFL.FA.A.0004.230531T1541Z-230603T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Glades-Hendry-Inland Palm Beach County-Metro Palm Beach County-
Inland Broward County-Metro Broward County-Inland Miami-Dade County-
Metropolitan Miami Dade-Coastal Palm Beach County-Coastal Broward
County-Coastal Miami Dade County-Far South Miami-Dade County-
Including the cities of Kendall, Delray Beach, Greenacres City,
Hendry Correctional, Lake Worth, Pembroke Pines, Riviera Beach,
Felda, Sunrise, Davie, Buckhead Ridge, The Acreage, Mahogany
Hammock, Fort Lauderdale, Ortona, Miami, Coral Springs, Jupiter,
Caloosa, Florida Gardens, Homestead, Brighton Seminole, Belle Glade,
West Palm Beach, Lion Country Safari Park, Miramar, Palm Beach
Gardens, Palmdale, Wellington, Miccosukee Indian Reservation,
Pompano Beach, Royal Palm Beach, Hialeah, Lakeport, Kendale Lakes,
Sandalfoot Cove, Muse, Moore Haven, Deerfield Beach, Sawgrass Mills
Mal, Royal Palm Ranger, Boynton Beach, Clewiston, Carol City,
Hollywood, and Boca Raton
1141 AM EDT Wed May 31 2023
...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...
* WHAT...Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is possible.
* WHERE...Portions of southeast Florida and southern Florida,
including the following areas, in southeast Florida, Coastal
Broward County, Coastal Miami Dade County, Coastal Palm Beach
County, Far South Miami-Dade County, Inland Broward County, Inland
Miami-Dade County, Inland Palm Beach County, Metro Broward County,
Metro Palm Beach County and Metropolitan Miami Dade. In southern
Florida, Glades and Hendry.
* WHEN...Several rounds of precipitation possible through Friday
evening.
* IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers,
creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations.
Flooding may occur in poor drainage and urban areas.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- Widespread amounts of 2 to 4 inches of rainfall are possible
over the next few days with localized amounts of 6+ inches
possible.
- http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood
Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared
to take action should flooding develop.
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TROPICAL OUTLOOK
000 ABNT20 KNHC 311130 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Wed May 31 2023 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Eastern Gulf of Mexico: An area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms is associated with a surface trough of low pressure interacting with an upper-level trough over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Environmental conditions appear only marginally favorable for additional development over the next several days as the system meanders over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. The system is then forecast to move across the Florida Peninsula this weekend and emerge into the southwestern Atlantic Ocean by early next week. Regardless of development, the system could produce heavy rainfall and gusty winds over portions of the Florida Peninsula later this week. Additional information on the rainfall and flooding potential can be found in products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office and Excessive Rainfall Outlooks issued by the Weather Prediction Center. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent. $$ Forecaster Papin
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ATLANTIC TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
000 AXNT20 KNHC 311103 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Wed May 31 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1040 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has been added to the analysis over West Africa along 12W from 14N southward to the equator, moving W at 15 to 20 kt. Numerous moderate scattered strong convection is noted ahead of the wave axis from 03N to 13N between the wave axis and 25W. The tropical wave that had been analyzed along 22W at 31/0000 UTC has been removed from the analysis. A central Atlantic tropical wave extends along 41W from 14N southward, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 06.5N to 09N between 33W and 45W. Another central Atlantic tropical wave extends along 52W from 11N southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 11N between 47W and 54W. The tropical wave that was analyzed along 62/63W at 31/0000 UTC has been removed from the analysis. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave extends along 76/77W from 16N southward, moving W at 10 kt. Isolated thunderstorms are observed near and within 150 nm W of the wave axis, mainly south of 12N. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Senegal near 14N17W to 05N27W. The ITCZ continues from 05N27W to 03.5N33W to 04.5N39W, then resumes from 05N42W to 05N51W. Aside from the convection mentioned above in the tropical waves section, scattered moderate convection is noted near and within 120 nm N of the ITCZ between 45W and 47W. GULF OF MEXICO... A mid to upper-level low is centered over the central Gulf of Mexico with a mid to upper-level trough extending south- southeastward from the SE Louisiana coast to the Yucatan Channel. A surface trough is present from 26N87W south-southwestward to the western Yucatan Peninsula. Upper-level diffluence over the eastern Gulf of Mexico is supporting scattered moderate convection from 26N to 28N between 83.5W and 86W. Cloudiness with isolated showers are seen elsewhere over the eastern Gulf, to the east of a line from New Orleans, LA to the western tip of Cuba. Isolated thunderstorms are noted in between Coatzacoalcos and Paraiso, along the southern Bay of Campeche coast. Moderate mainly easterly winds prevail across the central and north-central Gulf, with seas 2 to 3 ft, shown by a 0900 UTC satellite altimeter pass. Lighter winds and calmer seas prevail within 60 nm of the U.S. northern Gulf Coast, as well as over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. For the forecast, a surface trough is expected to take shape today, and extend from near the Yucatan Peninsula north- northeastward to the Florida Big Bend by tonight. Surface low pressure could form along this trough today or Thu and is expected to meander over the eastern Gulf through Fri. Environmental conditions appear only marginally favorable for additional development during this time. Enhanced showers and thunderstorms are expected across most of the eastern half of the Gulf today into Fri. Winds associated with this system are forecast to be fresh over the NE Gulf beginning tonight. The system should move eastward over Florida and into the Atlantic Ocean during the weekend. Elsewhere, over the western Gulf, high pressure should lead to gentle to moderate winds into the weekend, with occasional fresh pulses along the W coast of Yucatan. CARIBBEAN SEA... A mid to upper-level trough prevails over the NW Caribbean, while a mid to upper-level ridge prevails across the remainder of the basin. As a result, scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 17N northward, between 76W and 85W, including over Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and east-central Cuba. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are noted in the Windward Passage, as well as the SW Caribbean. Isolated showers are noted between 13N and the coast of Venezuela. Scattered showers are seen near and just E of Martinique and Dominica. Little to no showers are observed within the area from 13.5N to 19N between 62W and 75W. Moderate ESE winds prevail across the eastern and central Caribbean, with 3-5 ft seas, confirmed by a 31/0700 UTC altimeter pass. In the NW Caribbean, winds are gentle to moderate from the SE-SSE with 2 to 3 ft seas. Gentle ESE winds are found in the SW Caribbean. For the forecast, a weak pressure pattern will maintain gentle to moderate trades across the Caribbean and the tropical N Atlantic through the end of week, with occasional fresh pulses along the N coast of Venezuela and Colombia. Winds become southerly moderate over the central part of the basin Fri through Sun night ahead of a trough that is expected to move into the western Caribbean. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough extends from the Straits of Florida northeastward to near 31N70W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is observed from 23N to 28N between 70W and 77W. Scattered moderate convection is noted elsewhere from 20N to 31N between 65W and 81W. Convection from 27N to 31N between 56W and 71W is due to a stationary front that extends from Bermuda to 31N59W. Moderate S winds prevail between 64W-72W along with 4-5 ft seas. A ridge with light to gentle winds extends from 30N73W to 31N79W with seas near 3 ft. Gentle SSE winds and 1-3 ft seas are found across the Bahamas. Farther east, a cold front extends from 31N24W to 27N32W. It continues as a warm front to 31N39W. Fresh SW winds extend within 150 nm ahead of the front. Moderate WNW winds are within 240 nm behind the front. Seas in the area are 5-7 ft. Another cold front enters the area from 31N46W to 29N52W to 31N59W. Fresh SW-WSW winds are within 180 nm SE of the front, mainly E of 47W. The front is producing seas of 5-6 ft in the area. The pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge and lower pressure near the ITCZ is producing moderate to locally fresh trade winds across the Tropical Atlantic, where seas are 4-6 ft. An area of showers, not previously mentioned above, is present from 10N to 16N between 52W and 59W. For the forecast, the surface trough extending from the Straits of Florida northeastward to 31N70W will be the focal point for scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms over the next couple of days. A broad area of low pressure is expected to form along this trough Thu night to the southwest of Bermuda, when the trough is forecast to extend from 30N67W to South Florida. Fresh to strong winds may cover a large area with this low as it slides E along a cold front to the S of Bermuda on Fri. At the same time, another broad area of low pressure over the eastern Gulf of Mexico late this week will move E across Florida and into the western Atlantic over the weekend. As a result, increasing winds and building seas are likely between Florida and 60W this weekend. Strong N to NE winds and building seas are expected offshore northeast Florida Sun and Sun night behind a cold front. $$ HagenWPC A Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall in Florida from Wed-Friday
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