..TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR MAY 18, 2023..

 

THE TROPICS REMAIN QUIET, NO SIGN OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION.  THE ONLY THINGS I SEE IS THE EURO MODELS SUGGESTING WEAK DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW OVER THE ATLANTIC AND A WEAK LOW COMING OF THE CARIBBEAN AND CUBA, AND TRACKS NORTH OVER FLORIDA.

REMEMBER FORECAST ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE SO WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND NO WORRIES.  I WILL KEEP YOU POSTED THROUGHOUT THIS HURRICANE SEASON.

WE STILL HAVE THAT TROPICAL WAVE WEST OF THE AFRICAN COAST AND IT IS HAS PLENTY OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE EAST OF THE WAVES AXIS.  I WILL KEEP AN EYE ON IT.

RTW

SURFACE ANALYSIS MAP COURTESY OF NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

EURO ENSEMBLE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST WEAK LOW DEVELOPING NORTH OF THE EASTERN BAHAMAS.  AND POSSIBLE LOW NEAR FLORIDA ON THE ATLANTIC SIDE AND ALSO IN THE GULF.  NO WORRIES!

THE GFS AS ALWAYS SHOWING MORE LOWS THAN THE EURO.  REMEMBER THESE ARE POSSIBILITY OF WHERE A LOW CAN DEVELOP DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD.  AND ONCE AGAIN, THIS IS NOT SET IN STONE. WE LOOK FOR PERSISTENCY IN THE MODEL RUN.  WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND NO WORRIES AT THIS TIME.

EURO SHOWS THE WEAK LOW FROM THE EAST BAHAMAS AND A WEAK LOW OUT OF CUBA AND TRACKS NORTH OVER FLORIDA.  I WILL MONITOR THAT CLOSELY!  NO WORRIES!

THE CANADIAN MODEL WEAK LOW OVER THE WEST ATLANTIC OFF THE EAST COAST OF JACKSONVILLE AND TRACKS INLAND.  ONCE AGAIN WE MONITOR AND NO WORRIES AT THIS TIME!

GFS ALSO SHOWS WEAK LOW OVER FLORIDA BUT NOTHING SIGNIFICANT TO WORRY ABOUT AT THIS TIME!

• THIS MORNING CLOUD TEMPERATURE AND LIGHTNING MODEL SHOWS SHOWERS AND STORMS SOUTH OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TRACKING EAST AND ASSOCIATED WITH THE TAIL END OF A DECAYING FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  
• SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH LIGHTNING EAST OF GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINAS ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
• MORE SHOWERS, STORMS AND LIGHTNING TRACKING EAST OVER EASTERN CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS.  

REMEMBER SINCE SOME MODELS SUGGEST WEAK LOWS OR LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT IN THESE AREAS I MENTION WE WILL MONITOR THEM CLOSELY AS A PRECUATION BUT NOTING TO WORRY ABOUT AT THIS TIME.  THE ONES OVER LAND CAN PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS.