..TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK MAY 19, 2023..

 

GOOD MORNING!  I AM BEGINNING TO SEE MORE MODELS SUGGESTING LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE EAST COAST OF THE U.S. AND FLORIDA.  THE EURO MODEL ALSO SHOWING DEVELOPMENT.   SO AS THESE MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT DEVELOPMENT, I WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CLOSELY!

REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT OR NOT IF THESE LOWS DEVELOP CLOSE TO LAND THEY COULD  EHANCE THE SHOWERS AND STORMS.

REMEMBER TO CHECK BACK DAILY FOR UPDATES SEVERAL TIMES A  DAY IN CASE I PUBLISH AN UPDATE.

RTW

SURFACE ANALYSIS MAP COURTESY OF THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0930 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 23W from 
the equator to 11N. The tropical wave has moved very little
overnight. Scattered moderate convection is observed by  
satellite from 05.5N to 11N between 19W and 25W.

EURO ENSEMBLE SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA AND OVER THE ATLANTIC NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS.  ALSO SEEING LOW IN THE EASTERN GULF.  I CONTINUE TO MONITOR INTO NEXT WEEK.

RTW

GFS ENSEMBLE SHOW MORE LOW PRESSURE POSSIBILITIES IN THE ATLANTIC NORTH OF BAHAMAS THE CAROLINA COAST, EASTERN GULF AND OFF THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA.  SO WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

EURO SHOWS DEVELOPMENT NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS AND EAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL CROSSING THE LOW OVER FLORIDA AND INTO THE CENTRAL GULF.

GFS SHOWS SOME WHAT THE SAME AS THE EURO SO THERE IS MORE CONSISTENCY BETWEEN MODELS.

CANADIAN MODEL ALSO ON THE EURO AND GFS BAND WAGON.  i CONTINUE TO MONITOR CLOSELY!