..TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK MAY 26, 2023..

 

THIS FRONTAL LOW WILL BE A HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT FOR THE CAROLINAS THIS WEEKEND AND PARTS OF EARLY NEXT WEEK UNTIL IT MOVES AWAY.  GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE COAST AND ROUGH SURF.  

SOUTH FLORIDA COULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AGAIN TODAY WITH MUCH OF THE SAME AS YESTERDAY.  YOU CAN'T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO SO EYES ON THE SKIES!

STAY TUNED TO THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FOR THE LATEST ON THIS SYSTEM.

RTW

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TROPICAL OUTLOOK  (STORM INVESTIGATION)

000
ABNT20 KNHC 261144
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Fri May 26 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Southwestern Atlantic:
A broad non-tropical area of low pressure located east of the 
northeastern coast of Florida and an associated frontal boundary 
off the coast of the southeastern United States are producing a 
large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  The low is 
unlikely to become a subtropical or tropical cyclone since it is 
forecast to remain frontal while moving generally northward and 
inland over the Carolinas late Saturday or Sunday.

Regardless, the system is expected to produce gusty winds, and 
dangerous surf and rip current conditions along portions of the 
southeastern United States coast through Sunday.  Heavy rainfall is 
expected in portions of the Carolinas and Virginia during the next 
few days.  Hazardous marine conditions are also expected over the 
coastal and offshore waters where gale and storm warnings are in 
effect.  For more information, see products from your local National 
Weather Service office and high seas forecasts issued by the 
National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

&&

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 
KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Brown/Roberts

TROPICAL OUTLOOK DISCUSSION 

000
AXNT20 KNHC 261025
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Fri May 26 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Western Atlantic Gale Warning: A 1007 mb frontal low centered near
Lake Okeechobee, Florida is forecast to strengthen and drift 
northeastward into the western Atlantic for the next couple of 
days, then move north of 31N by Sat night. The pressure gradient 
between the high over the northeastern U.S. and the low will 
support fresh to strong N-NW to N-NE winds and 10 to 13 ft seas 
in large NE swell over the northeast Florida offshore waters 
beginning this afternoon, spreading southward to near Cape 
Canaveral through Sat afternoon. These winds will reach gale- 
force offshore northeast Florida this afternoon through Sat 
morning. Seas will build higher and peak at 15 to 19 ft during the
strongest winds. Winds and seas will diminish Sat night into Sun 
as the low weakens and moves north of the area.

Please see the latest High Seas Forecast at website 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further 
details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A new tropical wave has been analyzed in this map, with axis along
15W between 02N-12N. At this time, scattered moderate convection
prevails within this wave mainly E of 20W. 

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 26W from
12N southward, moving westward at around 10 to 15 kt. Scattered 
showers are noted from 02N to 10N between 22W and 32W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 43W from 
12N southward, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers
are noted along the wave's axis. 

A tropical wave extends its axis along 57W from 12N southward 
into Suriname, and moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered 
moderate convection is present from 07N to 12N between 49W and 
57W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough reaches southwestward from inland Senegal across
the coast near the Senegal-Gambia border to 12N18W. The ITCZ 
extends westward from 08N17W to 07N24W, then resumes from 01N27W 
to 00N42W. The convection in the vicinity of these boundaries is 
described in the Tropical Waves section above.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front curves westward from a 1007 mb low near Lake 
Okeechobee, Florida across the east-central Gulf to near 26N89W.  
A surface trough continues from that point to 28N93W. Another
trough extends from the low to western Cuba. Moderate to fresh NE
to ENE winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft are noted behind the cold 
front across the northeastern Gulf. Gentle to moderate NNE to E 
winds with 1 to 3 ft seas prevail for the rest of the Gulf, 
including the Bay of Campeche and Florida Straits.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh N to NE winds will prevail N 
of 25N and E of 90W through Sat. Weak high pressure will dominate 
the basin through the next several days, supporting gentle to 
moderate winds. Slight seas will build to moderate through Sat.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The western end of the Atlantic Ridge extends southwestward 
across Hispaniola to just east of Nicaragua. Convergent southerly 
winds near monsoon trough are triggering scattered showers and 
isolated thunderstorms at the south-central basin, just north of 
Colombia and Venezuela. Aided by strong upper-level divergence, 
scattered showers and thunderstorms are evident over eastern Cuba 
and nearby Caribbean waters.

Gentle to moderate ESE to S winds and seas at 3 to 5 ft are noted
for the eastern and north-central basin. NE to E gentle winds 
with 2 to 4 ft seas dominate the south-central and southwestern 
basin. Light to gentle WSW to W winds and seas of 1 to 3 ft
prevail for the remainder of the basin.

For the forecast, elongated troughing N of the basin will help to
maintain a weak pres gradient across the central and western
Caribbean through today, supporting light to gentle winds. The 
Azores High will continue to support moderate E-SE trade winds 
through the weekend over the E Caribbean, diminishing slightly 
into early next week. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section about a Gale Warning in 
the western Atlantic.

A stationary front extends southwestward from off the Georgia-
South Carolina coast near 31N78W to a 1007 mb low near Lake 
Okeechobee, Florida. Scattered moderate convection prevails across
the western Atlantic mainly W of 65W. At the eastern Atlantic, an
upper-level low near 30N30W is generating scattered moderate 
convection north of 27N between 26W and 32W.

Moderate to fresh northerly winds and seas of 5 to 8 ft are noted
off the northeast Florida coast north of 28N between 80W and the 
Georgia-northern Florida coast. Gentle to moderate SW to S winds 
with 4 to 6 ft seas are evident from 20N to 31N between 73W and 
80W. Moderate to fresh ESE to S winds and seas at 5 to 7 ft are 
noted north of 20N between 31W and 73W, and from 06N to 20N 
between 30W and the Lesser Antilles. Gentle to moderate NE to E 
trades and seas of 3 to 5 ft prevail elsewhere. 

For the forecast W of 55W, scattered showers and tstms prevail 
across the western Atlantic, mainly west of 65W. The low pres is 
forecast to strengthen and drift over the W Atlc through today, 
then move N to near 31N79W by Sat morning before moving north of 
the area by Sat evening. Fresh to strong N to NE winds and large 
NE swell will prevail across the NE Florida offshore waters today,
spreading southward to near Cape Canaveral through Sat before the
low moves N of the area. N to NE gales are expected offshore 
northern Florida this afternoon through Sat morning. High pressure
ridging will lead to quiescent conditions Sun and Mon. 

$$
ERA



RAINFALL ACCUMULATION THROUGH DAY 7
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK DAYS 1-5





NATIONAL FORECAST CHART DAYS 1-3