Ralph's Tropical Weather-RTW: ..0200 PM EDT STORM INVEST 91L FORMATION CHANCE UPGRADED TO 70% HIGH FOR A DEPRESSION OR SHORT LIVED TROPICAL STORM TO FORM AT ANYTIME..

Satellite imagery continues to show that this disturbance has become better organized this morning and early afternoon.

We could see a depression or tropical storm form at any time today. If it does develop, it will be a short-lived storm as it tracks southward in the coming days.

Dry air to the south of this system and upper-level winds in the coming days should keep INVEST 91L from becoming a stronger system.

The counterclockwise circulation will enhance the rain and storms over the state of Florida, and a flood watch remains in effect until Friday evening. The flood watch coverage area map below is courtesy of the National Weather Service in Miami, Florida.

FLZ063-066>068-071>074-168-172>174-020845-
/O.EXT.KMFL.FA.A.0004.000000T0000Z-230603T0400Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Glades-Hendry-Inland Palm Beach County-Metro Palm Beach County-
Inland Broward County-Metro Broward County-Inland Miami-Dade County-
Metropolitan Miami Dade-Coastal Palm Beach County-Coastal Broward
County-Coastal Miami Dade County-Far South Miami-Dade County-
Including the cities of Sunrise, Royal Palm Ranger, Hendry
Correctional, Lion Country Safari Park, Muse, Greenacres City, Palm
Beach Gardens, Florida Gardens, Ortona, Boca Raton, Miramar,
Caloosa, Miami, Hollywood, Pompano Beach, Delray Beach, Lake Worth,
Hialeah, Miccosukee Indian Reservation, Lakeport, Sandalfoot Cove,
Brighton Seminole, Sawgrass Mills Mal, Wellington, Davie, Moore
Haven, Kendale Lakes, West Palm Beach, Jupiter, Homestead,
Clewiston, Boynton Beach, Buckhead Ridge, Mahogany Hammock,
Deerfield Beach, Carol City, Royal Palm Beach, Belle Glade, Pembroke
Pines, Kendall, Felda, The Acreage, Riviera Beach, Coral Springs,
Palmdale, and Fort Lauderdale
146 AM EDT Thu Jun 1 2023

...FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...Flooding caused by excessive rainfall continues to be
possible.

* WHERE...Portions of southeast Florida and southern Florida,
including the following areas, in southeast Florida, Coastal
Broward County, Coastal Miami Dade County, Coastal Palm Beach
County, Far South Miami-Dade County, Inland Broward County, Inland
Miami-Dade County, Inland Palm Beach County, Metro Broward County,
Metro Palm Beach County and Metropolitan Miami Dade. In southern
Florida, Glades and Hendry.

* WHEN...Several rounds of precipitation possible through at least
Friday evening.

* IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers,
creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations.
Flooding may occur in poor drainage and urban areas.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- Widespread amounts of 2 to 4 inches of rainfall are possible
over the next few days with localized amounts of 6+ inches
possible.
- http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood
Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared
to take action should flooding develop.

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Thu Jun 1 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Northeastern Gulf of Mexico (AL91):
Recent satellite wind data, along with buoy and ship observations 
indicate the area of low pressure over the northeastern Gulf of 
Mexico has a broad but well-defined circulation with maximum 
sustained winds of about 35 mph. Shower and thunderstorm activity 
associated with the low is also showing signs of organization. 
Environmental conditions remain marginally favorable for additional 
development, and if these trends continue, a short-lived tropical 
depression or storm is likely to form as soon as this afternoon. The 
system is likely to meander over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico 
through tonight but begin a slow southward motion on Friday. By 
this weekend, environmental conditions are forecast to become 
unfavorable for additional development as the system continues 
moving southward, likely remaining offshore over the Gulf of Mexico. 
An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to 
investigate the system later this afternoon. 

Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall could occur over 
portions of the Florida Peninsula through this weekend. Additional 
information on the rainfall and flooding potential can be found in 
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast 
office and Excessive Rainfall Outlooks issued by the Weather 
Prediction Center.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

Forecaster Papin/Cangialosi