..TROPICAL STORM BRET MOVING THROUGH DRY AIR.. ..A STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR THE LESSER ANTILLES LATER TODAY..

 

REVIEWED SATELLITE THIS MORNING AND NOTICED THAT THE CENTER OF BRET IS EXPOSED.  STORM SURROUND THE CENTER BUT THE CENTER OF THIS STORM SYSTEM HAS A DRY SLOT IN THE MIDDLE.  THIS IS HINDERING DEVELOPMENT OF BRET FOR NOW.  HOWEVER, LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BURST OF THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE CENTER.

AHEAD OF BRET IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THERE IS UPPER LEVEL SHEAR.  IF THAT SHEAR PERSIST AS BRET MOVES WEST THROUGH THE CARRIBBEAN IT WILL ENCOUNTER HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT WHICH COULD HELP TO DIMINISH BRET FURTHER.  DEPENDING ON THAT FORECAST WE MAY SEE AN OPEN WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN INSTEAD OF A STORM.

REMEMBER THESE FORECAST MODELS WILL CHANGE RUN TO RUN AND THE WEATHER IS CONSTANTLY CHANGING SO CONTINUE TO MONITOR FUTURE UPDATES FROM NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

I AM ALSO NOTICING THAT MOST OF THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT BRET WILL BE WEAK AND MOVE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN AS AN OPEN WAVE NOT AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE.

I WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF BRET AS THE WEATHER IS FLUENT AND CHANGES CONSTANTLY.

AS FOR INVEST 93L BEHIND BRET, THIS WAVE HAS A 70-80% FORMATION CHANCE WITHIN 48 HRS OR 7 DAYS.  MOST OF THE MODELS SHOW THIS SYSTEM TURNING NORTHWEST BEFORE REACHING THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS

RTW

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE SHOWS DRY AIR BRET IS MOVING THROUGH.

EARLIER VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWED AN EXPOSED CENTER. 

HOWEVER, NOW IT SHOWS A BURST OF CONVECTION (THUNDERSTORMS)  

NEAR THE CENTER OF CICULATION AS BRET IS TRYING TO STRENGTHEN 

REGARDLESS OF DRY AIR.

IN THIS FORECAST SHEAR IS UNFAVORABLE IN THE CARIBBEAN.  I WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR DURING THIS WEEK FOR ANY CHANGES.

THIS SHEAR TENDENCY FORECAST ALSO SHOWS SHEAR INCREASING 

IN THE CARIBBEAN.

INVEST 93L WILL BE ONE OF THOSE STORMS THAT TURNS NORTHWEST AS WE SEE IT AT THIS TIME UNLESS THE FORECAST CHANGES.  NO WORRIES!