..TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK JUNE 27, 2023..

 

SLOW MOVING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORM MOVING ACROSS THE WINDWARD/ LEEWARD ISLANDS AHEAD OF A TROPICAL WAVE.  THESE STORMS HAVE BEEN PRODUCING FREQUENT LIGHTNING, GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS OVER THE ISLAND CHAIN.  THIS WILL SPREAD WESTWARD INTO THE CARIBBEAN AND THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION AS THE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT.

THERE ARE TWO OTHER WAVES BUT NONE ARE SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION.

REMENANTS OF CINDY ARE STILL PRODUCING SHOWERS AND STORMS AND THIS AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR REGENERATION AS IT TRACKS TOWARD THE NORTH.  THERE IS A 30% CHANCE FOR FORMATION WITHIN 7 DAYS!

RTW

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Tue Jun 27 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Southwestern Atlantic Ocean (Remnants of Cindy):
An area of low pressure, associated with the remnants of Cindy, is 
producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms more than 400 miles 
to the south of Bermuda. While strong upper-level winds are expected 
to prevent redevelopment of this system over the day or so, 
environmental conditions could become marginally conducive for some 
gradual development during the latter part of this week. The system 
is forecast to move generally northward over the western Atlantic, 
passing near Bermuda on Thursday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

Forecaster Papin

000
AXNT20 KNHC 271035
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Tue Jun 27 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1030 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic with axis near  
30W, from 04N to 15N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. The wave is
under the influence of Saharan dry air and dust and lacks 
significant convection.

A tropical wave is just SE of the Lesser Antilles with axis near
59W, from 06N to 16N, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered 
moderate convection is from 07N to 17N between 50W and 63W. 

A tropical wave is in the far western Caribbean crossing Honduras
and Nicaragua into the E Pacific waters. The wave axis is near
87W, extends southward from 17N, and is moving westward at 10 to 
15 kt. Convection over the NW Caribbean waters has diminished to
scattered showers in the Gulf of Honduras. 

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the W coast of Africa near
14N17W to 08N28W to 09N40W. The ITCZ continues from 09N40W to 
13N47W to 12N53W. Numerous moderate isolated strong convection is
off the coast of Africa from 05N to 10N between 11W and 18W.
Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere from 05N to 10N between
19W and 28W, and from 03N to 08N between 35W and 45W. 

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Dry air subsidence from the mid to upper levels are maintaining
fair weather conditions basin-wide. At the surface, a weak 
surface ridge dominates across the region and provides gentle to
locally moderate SE to S winds over the western half of the gulf.
Light to gentle variable winds are elsewhere. Seas are 1 to 3 ft
basin-wide. 

For the forecast, weak surface ridging will prevail through the 
upcoming weekend, supporting mainly gentle to moderate return flow
W of 90W and light to gentle variable wind over the eastern half 
of the basin. Otherwise, fresh winds will pulse north and west of 
the Yucatan peninsula each night into Sat as a trough develops 
each evening and moves offshore. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A weak pressure gradient is across the region as the remnants of
Cindy has weakened the Bermuda High. This is resulting in gentle
to moderate trade winds basin-wide with locally fresh winds off
the coast of Colombia where seas are 4 to 5 ft. Elsewhere, seas 
are 3 to 4 ft. In the NW Caribbean, the passage of a tropical wave
supports scattered showers in the Gulf of Honduras. Otherwise, a
tropical wave entering the E Caribbean later today, is already
generating scattered showers and tstms over the SE Caribbean and
the Windward Islands. 

For the forecast, a robust tropical wave along 85W will 
completely move into the Eastern Pacific waters this morning. 
Showers and tstms associated with the wave have started to 
diminish in the Gulf of Honduras. A second tropical wave is 
starting to move across the Lesser Antilles and is generating 
scattered showers and tstms over the Windward Islands. Gentle to 
moderate trade winds in the central and eastern Caribbean will 
increase to moderate to fresh speeds Wed night through Sun night 
as the wave move across this area. Winds may reach strong speeds 
Fri into Sat night as the wave move across the central basin. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An area of low pressure, associated with the remnants of Cindy, 
is producing heavy showers and tstms south-southeast of Bermuda 
from 20N to 29N between 55W and 65W. A tropical wave approaching
the Lesser Antilles in enhancing the winds over the offshore
waters S of 25N between 55W and 61W. The remainder subtropical
waters are under the influence of the Bermuda and Azores Highs,
which are providing moderate NE to E winds over the central
waters. Seas are 5 to 7 ft in the central and eastern subtropical 
Atlantic and 3 to 5 ft over the SW N Atlantic region. 

For the forecast W of 55W, the remnants of Cindy are forecast to 
move generally northward over the western Atlantic, passing near 
Bermuda on Thu. Moderate to fresh SE winds to the E of this 
elongated area of low pressure will lift N of the area Thu night. 
Moderate to fresh SW winds across the NE Florida offshore waters 
will diminish to gentle to moderate speeds Wed morning as an 
approaching front weakens into a surface trough. Light to gentle 
variable winds will prevail elsewhere. 

$$
Ramos