..AN AGGRESSIVE TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN..

 

An aggressive tropical wave is moving through the eastern Caribbean, producing squally conditions heavy rains and lightning over Puerto Rico and Dominican Republic. If this wave holds together, it could spread showers and storms across the greater Antilles, Cuba and Florida in the coming days.

Also a small area of showers and storms over the southwest Bahamas could enhance showers and storms over South Florida, the Florida Straits and Cuba over night as it tracks slowly west and interacts with a surface trough over the state.

RTW

000
AXNT20 KNHC 041743
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Tue Jul 4 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1700 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is located along 23W from S of 
the Cabo Verde Islands to 03N, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered 
moderate convection is seen from 07N to 12N E of the wave axis.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is located along 40W from 17N 
southward, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection
is seen from 04N to 08N mainly E of the wave axis. 

A vigorous tropical wave is located just S of Puerto Rico and 
extends into Venezuela, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. This wave is 
producing scattered moderate convection across Puerto Rico and the
offshore waters in the eastern Carribbean and seas up to 8 ft. 
Recent scatterometer imagery shows fresh to strong winds S of 
Puerto Rico and Dominican Republic. 

A western Caribbean tropical wave is currently transitioning into
the eastern Pacific Ocean. This wave is located along 87W from 
19N into Honduras and Nicaragua. This wave is moving W at around 
15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted N of Panama and 
offshore Costa Rica and Nicaragua. 

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the Senegal coast south
of Dakar and extends southwestward to near 12N22W. Convection in 
the vicinity of this trough is mainly associated with the tropical
wave described in the section above. An ITCZ continues from 
11N24W to near 07N39W, then resumes westward from 06N41W to 
04N51W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within about 60 nm
on both sides of the last ITCZ segment. 

The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough near 11N is 
causing scattered moderate convection in the Caribbean waters 
near northwestern Colombia.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough is producing scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection in the Bay of Campeche. Otherwise, 1018 mb high
pressure center offshore the Florida Panhandle is dominating much
of the basin, with the ridging leading to light to gentle 
anticyclonic winds and seas of less than 2 ft in the eastern Gulf 
and Florida Straits. For the western Gulf, outside of convection, 
gentle to moderate mainly SE to S winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft 
prevail. 

For the forecast, weak surface ridging will prevail into late 
week, supporting mainly gentle to moderate return flow W of 90W 
and light to gentle winds over the eastern half of the basin. 
Moderate to locally fresh winds will pulse nightly north and west 
of the Yucatan peninsula through Wed as a diurnal trough develops 
and moves offshore. Expect scattered thunderstorms across the 
southwest Gulf through Wed. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections 
above for convection and seas in the Caribbean. For the remainder
of the basin, mainly moderate trades prevail, with seas of 3 to 6
ft. The exceptions are S of 10N in the SW basin and in the Lee of 
Cuba, where winds are gentle and seas are 2 to 4 ft. 

For the forecast, fresh to strong winds will prevail in the 
central and eastern Caribbean through Wed night with and behind a 
tropical wave that is moving west of the Lesser Antilles today. 
Expect squalls and scattered thunderstorms to accompany this 
tropical wave through tonight. Gentle to moderate trade winds will
prevail elsewhere during the forecast period, while fresh to 
strong trades persist across south central portions.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A Sahara Dust Layer (SAL) outbreak of modest thickness covers 
much of the tropical Atlantic with its leading edge east of 
Puerto Rico/Virgin Islands and the Lesser Antilles. Hence, the
lack of tropical wave activity in the central Atlantic. Hazy 
conditions with slightly reduced visibilities are expected within 
this area for the next couple of days.

An upper level trough extends NE from the Dominican Republic to E
of Bermuda. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is 
seen in association with this feature as it interacts with the 
tropical wave in the vicinity, from 19N to 23N between 65W and 
70W. Two weak surface troughs are located in the northwest 
Bahamas and north of northeast Bahamas. Each of these troughs are
producing scattered showers and thunderstorms. For additional 
areas of convection in the Atlantic Ocean, please refer to the 
Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections above. 

High pressure of 1023 mb centered E of Bermuda is dominating much
of the subtropical Atlantic. This is leading to light to gentle 
winds for all areas N of 23N, except in the far eastern Atlantic 
where moderate to locally fresh winds are occurring in and near 
the Canary Islands. Seas for areas N of 23N are 3 to 4 ft, with 2
ft or less seas occurring in and near the Bahamas, Cuba, and 
Florida. To the S of 23N and W of 30W, fresh trades and seas of 5 
to 8 ft dominate, while areas to the E, including waters near the 
Cabo Verde Islands, having gentle to moderate mainly NE winds.

For the forecast west of 55W, a weak Bermuda High will maintain a
weak pressure gradient and lead to light gentle winds across most
of the area into late week. S of 22N, moderate to fresh winds 
will prevail into Thu night, occurring with and behind a tropical 
wave moving through the Caribbean. 

$$
KRV