..TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK JULY 12, 2023..

 

There is a strong wave off the African coast that I am monitoring closely.  Where the wave is presently located, upper level conditions are favorable for some formation to occur.  I will monitor in in the coming days.

The wave passing over the Caribbean is still producing some showers and storms moving over Puerto Rico.  Development of this wave is not expected as it is moving toward an unfavorable upper level environment.

Storm Investigation 94L

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Wed Jul 12 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Central Atlantic (AL94):
An area of low pressure located more than 500 miles east-northeast 
of Bermuda continues to produce disorganized showers and 
thunderstorms well to the south of its center.  Environmental 
conditions are forecast to be marginally conducive for some 
development of this system, and a subtropical or tropical depression 
or storm could form during the next few days while the system moves 
generally eastward.  By the weekend, the low should turn northward 
bringing the system over cooler waters, potentially limiting 
additional development.  Additional information on this system, 
including gale warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts, issued 
by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 
KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

Forecaster Kelly/Berg

435 
AXNT20 KNHC 121552
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion 
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 
1805 UTC Wed Jul 12 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America 
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South 
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the 
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite 
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1550 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A new tropical wave is analyzed in the eastern Atlantic, 
currently extending along 22W from 20N to 07N. Scattered 
moderate convection is observed from 09N to 12N between 18W and 
23W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave extends along 40W from 15N to 
01N, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Isolated to scattered moderate 
convection is observed from 07N to 10N between 37W and 43W.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave extends along a line from 
21N62W to 08N66W, moving west at 20 kt. Scattered moderate 
convection is observed mainly west of the wave from 14N to 18N 
between 63W and 73W.

A western Caribbean tropical wave extends along 85/86W, south of 
21N, moving west at 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is 
observed in the Gulf of Honduras.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 14N17W 
to 10N29W. The ITCZ continues in segments from 10N29W to 10N37W 
and from 08N43W to 07N53W. In addition to the convection 
described in the tropical wave section, scattered weak 
convection is observed along the western segment of the ITCZ 
from 06N to 09N between 44W and 55W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough is moving NW across the Bay of Campeche 
supporting moderate to fresh winds and 3 to 4 ft seas over the 
southwest and west-central Gulf. Elsewhere, a ridge extends from 
the Atlantic to the central Gulf, supporting a gentle breeze and 
slight seas.

For the forecast, a ridge will continue to dominate the Gulf 
waters while a trough will develop over the Yucatan Peninsula 
each evening and move offshore. This pattern will maintain 
moderate to fresh winds pulsing north and west of the Yucatan 
peninsula during the late afternoon and evening hours. 
Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and slight seas will prevail.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The gradient between a high-pressure ridge in the Atlantic and 
lower pressure in the SW Caribbean Sea is enhanced by a tropical 
wave in the Eastern Caribbean. Easterly trade winds are moderate 
to fresh in the central and eastern Caribbean and gentle to 
moderate in the NW Caribbean. Fresh NE winds are funneling 
through the Windward Passage. Seas are 6-8 ft throughout the 
central Caribbean, 4-6 ft in the eastern Caribbean, and 2-4 ft 
in the NW Caribbean.

For the forecast, a tropical wave moving across the eastern 
Caribbean will move westward to the central Caribbean through 
Thu and the western Caribbean through Sun. Another tropical wave 
will move across the Windward Islands Fri, across the southeast 
Caribbean Sat and into the south-central Caribbean Sun. The 
passage of the tropical waves will modulate fresh to strong 
winds across mainly the central Caribbean through the period.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends across the NW Atlantic from 31N70W to 
28N80W. A line of thunderstorms is observed along the frontal 
boundary. North of the front, winds are gentle from the W-NW. 
South of the front, winds are moderate from the SW. Seas are 
generally 3-5 ft on either side. Invest area AL94 is located 
near 34N52W, with a medium chance of becoming a tropical cyclone 
in the next 48 hours. While this system is north of the 
discussion area, fresh to strong S winds and weak convection are 
observed north of 27N between 48W and 51W. Otherwise across the 
western and central basin, the subtropical ridge extends 
westward along 25/26N. Winds are gentle near the ridge axis. 
North of the ridge, winds are moderate to fresh from the west. 
South of the ridge, winds are moderate to fresh from the east. 
Seas are 4-5 ft along the ridge axis, and 5-7 ft on either side. 
In the eastern Atlantic, NE winds are moderate to fresh with 5-7 
ft seas. Similar conditions extend into the central Atlantic 
south of 20N.

For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure will persist 
northeast of the Bahamas through Sun. A weak cold front 
extending from 31N69W to 28N79W will stall between NE Florida 
and Bermuda late today and dissipate tonight into Thu morning. 
Farther south, the northern end of a tropical wave will move 
westward across the waters south of 22N through Fri. Expect 
fresh to strong NE to E winds and rough seas south of 22N both 
ahead of and following the tropical wave. 

$$ 
Flynn