..TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK AUG 14, 2023..

 

The National Hurricane Center has two storm investigation areas over the East Atlantic for two storm systems over the west African Continent.  They will be monitored closely for slow development.  There is Sahara Dust/Dry air over the Atlantic now and it is expected to remain through this week.  That could hinder development as these system track west to a west-northwest across the Atlantic.

An upper low over the west Caribbean is producing scattered strong to moderate showers and storms. 

RTW

Note I am borrowing Weathernerds Satellite maps to draw on them.  Visit Weathernerds for satellite images and more.

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon Aug 14 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa on 
Wednesday or early Thursday. Some slow development of this system 
will be possible late this week while the system moves gradually 
west-northwestward or northwestward across the eastern Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

2. Central Tropical Atlantic:
Another area of low pressure could develop by the middle to latter 
portion of this week over the central tropical Atlantic. Some slow 
development of this system is also possible while it moves 
west-northwestward through the end of the week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster D. Zelinsky

878 
AXNT20 KNHC 140838
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Mon Aug 14 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0840 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of an Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is near 37W, from 16N
southward, moving westward from 10 knots to 15 knots. Isolated
moderate convection is noted from 08N to 10N between 38W and 40W. 

The axis of a Caribbean Sea tropical wave is near 71W, from 20N 
southward, moving westward from 10 knots to 15 knots. Scattered
moderate convection is noted within 90 nm of the wave axis N of
15N. 

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Senegal
near 15N17W to 09N41W. The ITCZ continues from 09N41W, to 08N57W.
Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 
07N to 11N between 20W and 31W, and from 06N to 09N between 40W 
and 48W. 

...GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure is centered over the NE Gulf, where light to gentle
winds, and seas of 1-2 ft, prevail. Gentle to moderate winds, and
seas of 3-5 ft, are elsewhere. 

For the forecast, a trough will move off the Yucatan Peninsula 
each night supporting fresh winds off northwest Yucatan. 
Elsewhere, a ridge over the northern Gulf will support mostly 
gentle to moderate winds and slight seas across the basin through 
Fri. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Fresh to strong winds are found over the south central Caribbean
as well as over the Gulf of Honduras. Moderate to fresh winds are
elsewhere east of 75W, with gentle to moderate winds W of 75W.
Seas are in the 6-8 ft range over the central Caribbean, 4-6 ft
over the eastern Caribbean, and 4-6 ft over the western Caribbean.

For the forecast, ridging over the western Atlantic will support 
fresh to locally strong winds across mainly the south-central 
Caribbean through mid week. Moderate winds and seas will persist 
elsewhere. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Fresh to locally strong winds, and seas of 8-9 ft, are noted from
20N to 29N between 35W and 55W. Moderate to fresh winds are S of 
20N and W of 50W, and well as S of 24N and W of 55W. Mainly gentle
to moderate winds are elsewhere. Seas are in the 5-8 ft range
elsewhere E of 55W, and 3-5 ft W of 55W. 

For the forecast W of 55W, a surface trough will move westward 
toward the Bahamas through the early part of the week. Expect 
moderate to fresh easterly winds south of 24N following the trough
through Tue. Fresh to locally strong winds will pulse off 
Hispaniola during the late afternoons and early evenings through 
Tue. 

$$
AL