..ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE HINTING AT DEVELOPMENT IN THE CARIBBEAN BY NOV. 15, 2023..

 

We are in a brief lull from storm development. This gives you a sense that hurricane season is over, but in reality, it is not as the Climate Prediction Center (Global Tropics Hazard Outlook) map has been suggesting. This brief lull comes to an end early next week.

The GEFS and GEPS ensembles show a probability of low pressure forming in the southern and central Caribbean. The EPS (EURO) ensemble is not yet on board with development, but that does not mean it won't show development in the coming model runs.

So we relax for now and will begin to monitor next week as we enter a short peak in mid-November for possible development. I will keep you posted in the coming days and into next week.

So far, high pressure has been in control and protecting us, and I hope that continues. I do see another strong, high-pressure ridge building over the east and southeast by Monday and Tuesday of next week. This will once again produce a strong pressure gradient, with strong gusty winds and rough surf next week. This has been the pattern, but if this low or storm lingers to the south and the high weakens, the low or storm could track north or north-northeast if another front moves in. Lets be vigilant and storm ready as we have been this season.

RTW  

Here is the latest Global Tropics Hazard Outlook from the Climate Prediction Center

Ensemble Models

Here is the Windy Wind Gust EURO Model Forecast