Ralph's Tropical Weather-RTW: ..LOW ATTACHED TO AN OCCLUDED FRONT AND A DEVELOPING LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST, WILL BRING FLOODING RAINS TO SOUTHEAST FLORIDA..

Moisture from a gale center low pressure associated with an occluded front in the Gulf of Mexico will merge with a low that will develop off the southeast coast of Florida. Moisture from this low, which will intensify as it tracks north-northeast, will produce the potential for heavy rainfall on the southeast coast of Florida and a portion inland over the metro areas. You can expect 02.00" to 05.00" with 7 inches for those flood prone areas.

A flood watch is in effect for a portion of the eastern Florida.

The Weather Prediction Center has a marginal and a slight risk for drenching showers and thunderstorms that could produce localized flooding in those flood-prone areas. Thursday afternoon into Friday, the heavy rains track northeast along the Florida coast as the low tracks north-northeast. On Saturday and Sunday, it looks good for most of Florida.

The Storm Prediction Center calls for general thunderstorms but not severe ones. However, there could be lightning and gusty winds with the stronger cells. I will monitor SPC for any changes to their outlook and will post them here if necessary.

RTW

Excessive Rainfall outlook Marginal Today and Marginal-Slight Risk Wed -Thu!

2-5 inches and up to 7 inches in flood prone areas

Day 2 Wednesday 15, 2023 Severe Storm Outlook (General Thunderstorms)

Day 3 Severe Storm Outlook Thursday (General Thunderstorms)

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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
100 PM EST Tue Nov 14 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Southwestern Caribbean Sea:
A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the 
southwestern Caribbean Sea is associated with a broad trough of low 
pressure.  Environmental conditions appear conducive for 
development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to 
form during the latter part of the week while moving northeastward 
across the western and central portions of the Caribbean Sea.  
Interests in Jamaica, Cuba, Haiti, the Dominican Republic, the 
southeastern Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos Islands should 
monitor the progress of this system.  Regardless of development, 
this system has the potential to produce heavy rains over portions 
of the Caribbean coast of Central America and the Greater Antilles 
through the end of this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

Forecaster Berg

NWS Miami

@NWSMiami

2hours ago

Good morning! The main show in terms of heavy rainfall will be tomorrow, but that doesn't mean today will be dry. In fact heavy rainfall will be possible over portions of the east coast metro this afternoon and this could result in localized flooding in prone urban areas.