Mesoscale Discussion 2285 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0607 AM CST Wed Nov 22 2023 Areas affected...Eastern North Carolina Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 221207Z - 221430Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...An isolated tornado threat is expected to develop across parts of eastern North Carolina this morning. The severe threat should remain marginal, and weather watch issuance is not expected. DISCUSSION...At mid-levels, a trough and an associated speed max, are located over the central Gulf Coast states. The 80 to 100 knot mid-level jet will continue to approach the Carolinas over the next few hours. As a result, large-scale ascent and deep-layer shear will gradually strengthen over the Carolinas this morning. At the surface, a mesoscale low is analyzed over northeastern South Carolina, with another in northeastern North Carolina. A weakly unstable airmass is present to the east of this surface trough. This airmass will slowly destabilize this morning, which will make conditions more favorable for rotating storms. In addition, the WSR-88D VWP near Wilmington, North Carolina currently has 0-3 km storm-relative helicity near 230 m2/s2. As the low-level shear strengthens ahead of the system, a marginal tornado threat is expected to develop. This threat should persist throughout the morning from near the coast of North Carolina inland about 50 statute miles. ..Broyles/Edwards.. 11/22/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
DAY 1 SEVERE STORM OUTLOOK
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DAY 1 TORNADO PROBABILITY
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Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point. (More Info) | |||||||||
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DAY 1 DAMAGING WIND PROBABILITY
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ABNT20 KNHC 221148 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 700 AM EST Wed Nov 22 2023 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Central Subtropical Atlantic: An area of low pressure is expected to develop along a frontal boundary over the central subtropical Atlantic in a day or so. This non-tropical low is forecast to move southeastward across the central subtropical Atlantic over warmer sea surface temperatures during the next few days, and environmental conditions could allow for this system to gradually acquire tropical or subtropical characteristics. A subtropical or tropical storm could form by the latter part of this week or this weekend, as the system turns northeastward by the weekend. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent. $$ Forecaster Kelly
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