..TRACKING THE TROPICS UPDATE NOVEMBER 10, 2023..

 

So I continue to monitor a surface trough in the southern Caribbean for tropical cyclone formation. The National Hurricane Center now has a storm investigation area in the Southern Caribbean, with a low 20% chance that low pressure will form in this area during the next few days or into early next week.

The track of this system is still uncertain, as there is no center to track at this time. However, most of the ensemble models have this system tracking northeast. I will keep monitoring and reporting on this blog daily.

RTW

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
700 AM EST Fri Nov 10 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A broad area of low pressure could form in the southwestern 
Caribbean Sea by the middle of next week.  Some gradual development 
of this system is possible thereafter while it moves little. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.
 

Forecaster Cangialosi