..TRACKING THE TROPICS UPDATE NOVEMBER 13, 2023..

 

The ensemble models show the storm investigation in the Caribbean, tracking northeast as a frontal boundary tracks east and the high to the northeast weakens and allows this system to track out over the Atlantic. However, Jamaica, Eastern Cuba, Haiti, and the Dominican Republic should monitor the progress of this developing weather system.

The second system I am monitoring is a low attached to a cold front over the western Gulf. Most of the models suggest that this winter-type low will track east and drag the low and a cold front across Florida. This system will be accompanied by gusty winds and storms by Wednesday or Thursday. So far, it does not look like this will be tropical in nature, but it could intensify as it tracks northeast over the Atlantic.

This is typical EL Niño conditions and what to expect this winter.

RTW

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
700 AM EST Mon Nov 13 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Southwestern Caribbean Sea:
A broad area of low pressure is expected to form over the 
southwestern Caribbean Sea in a few days. Gradual development of 
this system is possible thereafter, and a tropical depression could 
form late this week while the system begins moving northeastward 
across the western and central portions of the Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

Forecaster Papin