I continue to monitor the model run for this low that is supposed to strengthen a bit over the Gulf on approach to Florida.
However, models seem to show that the intensity of these storms seems to break up over southern Florida, causing stronger cells to split apart.
This makes it difficult to tell what areas will be affected by the strong storm cells. The Storm Prediction Center still has a marginal risk for southern Florida late Friday Night and on Saturday morning, and some areas could still experience strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging gusty winds, lighting, hail, and heavy downpours that can produce localized flooding in those areas prone too street floods. Also an isolated tornado or two cannot be ruled out.
Below, you can read the Storm Prediction Center (Southeast) synopsis for this storm system.
RTW
...Southeast...
Even with the aforementioned uncertainties, it does appear that an
initially dry/potentially cool low-level environment, across much of
the Florida peninsula through eastern Gulf Coast region, will tend
to maintain generally stable conditions inland of coastal areas as
initial convection supported by warm advection overspreads it.
However, based on various model output, including some
convection-allowing guidance, there appears potential for at least
one initially organized convective cluster to overspread the Florida
Keys/southern Florida peninsula vicinity, coincident with a warm
front off the southeastern Gulf of Mexico early Friday. Given
sufficient boundary-layer destabilization in the presence of strong
deep-layer shear, this may be accompanied by a risk for damaging
wind gusts and perhaps a tornado or two.
Thereafter, it appears that widespread convective development,
perhaps including organizing clusters, may continue along trailing
convective outflow gradually advancing across and east-southeast of
the southeastern Gulf of Mexico through early Saturday. Convective
potential to the north of this outflow remains unclear. However,
models do indicate that substantive boundary-layer destabilization
is possible across much of the northeastern Gulf of Mexico by late
Friday night, ahead of a weak southeastward advancing cold front.
Still ahead of the mid-level troughing axis, this environment may
support additional scattered strong thunderstorm development which
might spread inland across coastal areas before weakening.Days 2-3 Friday/Saturday severe storm outlook (Marginal Risk)
| MARGINAL | 28,698 | 10,287,668 | Miami, FL...Tampa, FL...St. Petersburg, FL...Hialeah, FL...Fort Lauderdale, FL... |
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of two inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point.
| 5 % | 10,763 | 2,481,103 | Tampa, FL...St. Petersburg, FL...Clearwater, FL...Largo, FL...Palm Harbor, FL... |
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
| 2 % | 28,718 | 10,319,869 | Miami, FL...Tampa, FL...St. Petersburg, FL...Hialeah, FL...Fort Lauderdale, FL.. |
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
| 5 % | 28,478 | 10,302,841 | Miami, FL...Tampa, FL...St. Petersburg, FL...Hialeah, FL...Fort Lauderdale, FL... |
| MARGINAL | 9,032 | 1,875,828 | Miami Beach, FL...Kendall, FL...The Hammocks, FL...Kendale Lakes, FL...North Miami, FL... |
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
| 5 % | 8,820 | 1,801,409 | Miami Beach, FL...Kendall, FL...The Hammocks, FL...Kendale Lakes, FL...Coral Gables, FL... |
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