..ERNESTO UPDATE 0800 AM EDT AUG 16, 2024..

 

Good morning, This morning I reviewed the water vapor satellite and upper-level forecast and have noticed that Hurricane Ernesto's west quadrant storm structure, including the western eyewall, is disrupted. At this time, an upper-level forecast map courtesy of  UW-CIMSS shows Ernesto is being shear along the west quadrant but also has dry air intrusion getting in through the storms inflow. However, recon flight from this morning said that although Ernesto is going through a hostile environment, it has managed to hold intensity at 100 mph sustain winds. So for now, the strengthening has stopped. Let's hope that the wind shear and the dry air will weaken Ernesto before passing near Bermuda. Also I noticed that Ernesto's track has shifted to the right of previous track and this would keep the center of Ernesto to the east of Bermuda. However, a slight wobble back to the west, then the center would pass directly over Bermuda.  Being the the west quadrant is being disrupted it would be beneficial that Ernesto would stay to the east of Bermuda.

RTW

...ERNESTO APPROACHING BERMUDA, WITH STRONG WINDS, DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING STARTING LATER TODAY...

8:00 AM AST Fri Aug 16 Location: 28.9°N 66.5°W Moving: NNE at 13 mph Min pressure: 968 mb Max sustained: 100 mph