..TRACKING THE TROPICS UPDATE OCT. 31, 2024..

 

Good morning to all. I hope your having an awesome start to the day!

Well, it is looking more like this system that is forecast to develop by this weekend and into next week will be steered back toward the west or northwest and into the Gulf by high pressure. The question is: how strong will this system be? If this storm system remains weak, then a track toward the west would be more likely, but a stronger system influenced northward and eastward by cold fronts/troughs that are tracking east. 

Some of the models show a trough moving in and turning this system north and eastward. If there were no high pressure, then a track northeast across the greater Antilles and the Bahamas would be more logical. Some other models suggest a weaker system, while other models suggest a bit stronger system, so your guess is as good as mine, so lets be Storm Ready! 

Suggestion to vote early since this could possibly disrupt election!

I will keep a watch and report here daily. Remember to stay up to date with the National Hurricane Center for the latest.

RTW

000
ABNT20 KNHC 311125
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Oct 31 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Southwestern Caribbean Sea:
A broad area of low pressure is likely to develop over the 
southwestern Caribbean Sea during the next couple of days.  Gradual 
development is possible thereafter, and a tropical depression could 
form over the weekend or early next week while the system drifts 
generally northward or northwestward over the central or western 
Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

936 
ACCA62 KNHC 311126
TWOSAT

Perspectiva sobre las Condiciones del Tiempo en el Trópico
Centro Nacional de Huracanes del SNM Miami FL
800 AM EDT jueves 31 de octubre de 2024

Para el Atlántico Norte...Mar Caribe y el Golfo de México:

Mar Caribe suroeste: Es probable que se desarrolle una amplia área
de baja presión sobre el Mar Caribe suroeste durante los próximos
dos días. Es posible un desarrollo gradual a partir de entonces, y
una depresión tropical podría formarse durante el fin de semana o
principios de la próxima semana mientras el sistema se desplaza
generalmente hacia el norte o el noroeste sobre el Mar Caribe
central u occidental.
* Probabilidad de formación hasta 48 horas...baja...cerca del 0 por
ciento.
* Probabilidad de formación hasta 7 días...medio...50 por ciento.

$$
Pronosticador Beven

*** Este producto ha sido procesado automáticamente utilizando un
programa de traducción y puede contener omisiones y errores. El
Servicio Nacional de Meteorología no puede garantizar la precisión
del texto convertido. De haber alguna duda, el texto en inglés es
siempre la versión autorizada. ***

The Euro model shows a weaker system moving into the Gulf and another weaker

low forming in the western Caribbean.

The Canadian model shows a depression or tropical storm being temporarily influenced

by a trough then high pressure building back over and shoving this system south 

over the Yucatan and weakening it. 

The American model shows a tropical storm or hurricane tracking west over Cuba and into

the Gulf in response to a cold front. This would track this storm northeast toward the 

Panhandle of Florida and weakening it before landfall.

The German model is a bit more aggressive, showing a strong hurricane making a turn north,

between western Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula. This is due to a trough you can see on the left 

top of this map. You can see the high pressure that was steering this system—West-northwest, 

being shoved east over the Atlantic by this sharp trough. This is a bit more disturbing if it were to happen since it looks to be a stronger system that would be eventually turned toward Florida.