I hope you are having a great morning, and please continue praying for those affected by these hurricanes.
For at least the next seven days we will be storm-free, from the Caribbean or Gulf, as next week a cold front will drop in and a strong high pressure will build in behind the front and extend south and east over the Gulf and a portion of the Atlantic. The Azores high will also build west and force Invest 94L westward. This system has a medium 50/50% chance for formation within 48 hours and 7 days. This is seen on the ensemble models below. So I will keep an eye on this system that could become a hurricane as it tracks westward.
The ensemble models also hint that low pressure could form in the southern or western Caribbean; however, a northward track may be blocked if the high remains over the Gulf, and a westward track over Central America or the Yucatan would be more likely.
Since the model forecast changes every run, I will monitor them through next week for any changes that could affect the Gulf coast and Invest 94L that come in from the east.
Have a blessed weekend,
RTW
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
910 AM EDT Fri Oct 11 2024
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Special outlook issued to update discussion of the disturbance near
the Cabo Verde Islands (AL94).
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Leslie, located over the central subtropical Atlantic Ocean.
1. Near the Cabo Verde Islands (AL94):
Updated: Very recent satellite-derived wind data indicate that
winds to tropical storm force are occurring over portions of the
Cabo Verde Islands in association with an area of low pressure
centered near the southwestern portion of the archipelago.
However, the satellite data showed that the circulation is
elongated, and the associated shower and thunderstorm activity
remains disorganized. Some additional development is possible, and
a short-lived tropical storm could form while the system moves
westward or west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph across the Cabo Verde
Islands and eastern tropical Atlantic today. On Saturday,
environmental conditions are forecast to become less conducive, and
further development appears unlikely after that time. Regardless of
development, winds to tropical storm force and areas of heavy rain
are likely to continue over portions of the Cabo Verde Islands
through tonight. For additional information on this system,
including gale warnings, please see High Seas Forecasts issued by
Meteo France.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.
High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France under WMO header FQNT50
LFPW and available on the web at
www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-marine/bulletin/grandlarge/
metarea2.
Forecaster Berg
-------------------------------------------------------------
514 ACCA62 KNHC 111310 TWOSAT Perspectiva Especial de Tiempo Tropical Centro Nacional de Huracanes del SNM Miami FL 910 AM EDT viernes 11 de octubre de 2024 Para el Atlántico Norte...Mar Caribe y el Golfo de México: Perspectiva especial emitida para actualizar la discusión de la perturbación cerca de las Islas de Cabo Verde (AL94). Sistemas Activos: El Centro Nacional de Huracanes está emitiendo advertencias sobre la Tormenta Tropical Leslie, ubicada sobre el Océano Atlántico subtropical central. Cerca de las Islas de Cabo Verde (AL94): Actualizado: Datos de viento muy recientes derivados de satélites indican que están ocurriendo vientos con fuerza de tormenta tropical sobre porciones de las Islas de Cabo Verde en associación con un área de baja presión centrada cerca de la porción suroeste del archipiélago. Sin embargo, los datos de satélite mostraron que la circulación es alargada, y la actividad de aguaceros y tormentas eléctricas associadas permanece desorganizada. Es posible algún desarrollo adicional, y una tormenta tropical de corta duración podría formarse mientras el sistema se mueve hacia el oeste o hacia el oeste- noroeste a 10 a 15 mph a través de las Islas de Cabo Verde y el Atlántico tropical este hoy. El sábado, se pronostica que las condiciones ambientales se volverán menos propicias, y parece poco probable que haya más desarrollo después de ese tiempo. Independientemente del desarrollo, es probable que los vientos con fuerza de tormenta tropical y áreas de fuertes lluvias continúen sobre porciones de las Islas de Cabo Verde hasta esta noche. Para información adicional sobre este sistema, incluyendo avisos de galerna, por favor vea Pronósticos de Alta Mar emitidos por Meteo France. * Probabilidad de formación hasta 48 horas...medio...50 por ciento. * Probabilidad de formación hasta 7 días...medio...50 por ciento. && Pronósticos de Alta Mar emitidos por Meteo France bajo el encabezado de la OMM FQNT50 LFPW y disponible en la web en www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-marine/bulletin/grandlarge/ metarea2. $$ Pronosticador Berg *** Este producto ha sido procesado automáticamente utilizando un programa de traducción y puede contener omisiones y errores. El Servicio Nacional de Meteorología no puede garantizar la precisión del texto convertido. De haber alguna duda, el texto en inglés es siempre la versión autorizada. ***By Sunday will see some Sahara Dry/Air and Dust moving into the Caribbean.
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