..TRACKING THE TROPICS "SARA" UPDATE NOVEMBER 15, 2024..

 

Good morning to all, and happy Friday, November 15, 2024!

Let's talk a bit about Sara and the future track of Sara. Sara is located near 16.1°N and 86.0°W, moving 5mph and slowing down. It is sitting along the coast between the Bay Islands and mainland Honduras.

• Heavy rains from Sara have been producing catastrophic flooding, and on-going water rescues have been occurring over night.

• Sara's proximity to the coastline is preventing rapid intensification, but regardless of that, the heavy rainfall is bad enough for this region.

• Sara is forecast to continue on a west-to-northwest track, and as it moves over the waters east of Belize, it could strengthen a bit before making landfall along the southeast coast of the Yucatan Peninsula.

• As Sara moves inland, most of the models show that Sara will dissipate over land, and if there are any remnants of the low as it enters the Southern Gulf, then that low will be pulled north and merge with the frontal boundary and could redevlop some. Models are also showing development of another low along the boundary, and some thunderstorms with gusty winds will develop along the boundary as the tracks toward the Panhandle. Models are also showing that these storms will be short-lived as the front traverses Florida. The GFS ensemble model is the only one hinting at a tropical storm passing over or south of the Florida straits. While the Navy model, which I did not bother posting here, suggests a hurricane moving over Central Florida.

I will continue to monitor it for you all, but as it looks now we will not have to worry about Sara into next week.

RTW

...SARA SLOWING DOWN BETWEEN THE BAY ISLANDS AND NORTHERN MAINLAND OF HONDURAS... ...CATASTROPHIC FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES ONGOING FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...

9:00 AM CST Fri Nov 15 Location: 16.1°N 86.0°W Moving: W at 5 mph Min pressure: 997 mb Max sustained: 50 mph

THE 06Z EURO AIFS SHOWS NOTHING LEFT OF SARA AND THE FRONT CROSSING THE GULF AND FLORIDA!

THE REGULAR EURO AL SHOWS NO SARA LEFT AFTER MOVING OVER THE YUCATAN AND THE FRONT CROSSING THE GULF AND FLORIDA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS.

THE CANADIAN MODEL SHOW SOME ENERGY/STORMS LEFT OVER FROM SARA BEING OBSORBED BY THE FRONT AND A LOW DELOPING ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND MOVING TOWARD THE PANHANDEL AND STORM DISIPATING AS THEY REACH THE WEST COAST.

THE GFS AMERICAN MODEL SHOW A BIT OF SARA MERGING WITH THE FRONT AND WEAK LOW TRACKING SOUTHEAST TOWARD SOUTHWEST FLORIDA AND DISIPATING BEFORE IT REACHES THE COAST.

THE GERMAN ICON MODEL ALSO SHOWS REMNANT LOW FROM SARA BEING PULLED NORTH BY THE BOUNDARY AND MERGING WITHIN THE BOUNDARY. THIS LOW MOVES INLAND OVER SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN TIP OF THE PANHANDEL OF FLORIDA, BRINGING SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH IT.

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL MAP FOR 12 Z TUESDAY NOVE 19 AND 12 Z WEDNESDAY 20 SHOW A MARGINAL RISK FOR HEAVY RAINS FROM/EASTERN LOUISIANA A PORTION OF SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI, ALABAMA, GEORGIA AND NORTHERN FLORIDA. THIS IS WHERE MOST OF THE MODELS WITHIN THIS BOUNDARY SHOW POSSIBLE HEAVY RAINS.

IN THIS FRONT AND WEATHER TYPE MAP FRO WPC SEE NO TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE SYMBOL IN THE GULF. NO SIGN OF SARA.

7-DAY RAINFALL ACCUMULATION MAP SHOW MOST OF THE HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE GULF.

PRESNT WIND SHEAR BECOMING UNFAVORABLE FOR SARA AND AS THE FRONTAL BOUDARY MOVES OVER THE GULF WINDS WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE MAKING IT DIFFICULT FOR ANY DEVELOPMENT.