RTW TROPICAL OUTLOOK JULY 31, 2025

 

Good morning and happy Thursday!

The tropics remain quiet as dry air over the central Atlantic remains in control for now. Another strong storm system will be moving off the African continent in the coming days. Let's see what happens, as the Atlantic season seems to be having some difficulty getting started due to Saharan dust and dry air.

The GFS ensemble models seem to be the most aggressive with storms tracking west of Florida and into the Gulf. The others are not so aggressive at this time. The Euro AI model is once again hinting that a tropical cyclone will make landfall over Jacksonville. As I always mention, these are forecasts and not set in stone, so don't get too excited about what you see. There are no storm systems in the Atlantic at this time.

It's a good time to continue getting your home prepared and getting yourself ready for the next couple of months.

RTW

National Hurricane Center

000
ABNT20 KNHC 311137
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Jul 31 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Beven

-----------------------------------------------------------------

644 
ACCA62 KNHC 311138
TWOSAT

Perspectivas del Tiempo Tropical
Centro Nacional de Huracanes del SNM Miami FL
800 AM EDT jueves 31 de julio de 2025

Para el Atlántico Norte...Mar Caribe y el Golfo de América:

No se espera la formación de ciclones tropicales durante los próximos
7 días.

$$
Pronosticador Beven

*** Este producto ha sido procesado automáticamente utilizando un
programa de traducción y puede contener omisiones y errores. El
Servicio Nacional de Meteorología no puede garantizar la precisión del
texto convertido. De haber alguna duda, el texto en inglés es siempre
la versión autorizada. ***


Two strong high pressures are seen in the map below; they're the brown 
circular lines with hole in the center which is the center 
of where the High is located.

GEFS (American) ensemble models shows more formation 
probability over the Gulf and Florida. 
This is only a forecast and is always subject to change.
ECENS (European) ensemble models shows probability of formation off the east coast
and a few over the Gulf and along the west coast of Florida.
This is only a forecast and is always subject to change.
EPS (European) show a probability of a tropical cyclone in the Caribbean and Gulf. 
This is only a forecast and is always subject to change.
GEFS (American Model) hyperactive mode showing high probability.
This is only a forecast and is always subject to change.
GEPS (Canadian) ensemble models shows something approaching northeast Florida 
coast and something the northwest Caribbean and into the western Gulf.
This is only a forecast and is always subject to change.