This morning's satellite review shows a pretty decent low-pressure swirl with Erin. However, since Erin is moving too fast (23 mph), this produces wind shear over Erin. Also Erin is surrounded by Sahara dust and dry air and is presently moving through cooler sea surface temperatures. This has caused the thunderstorm activity to diminish some, leaving the center exposed with some showers to the south of Erin.
What does this mean to the track?
Well, weaker systems tend to track more to the west and are not influenced by low-pressure troughs to the north as the stronger storms are. So depending on how far west Erin goes, this means the models will more than likely have to adjust and shift further west as well. This will also be a heads-up for the Bahamas and the Eastern U.S. to keep an eye out, as we don't know how far west this system will go.
As it is right now, there is a big spread beyond seven days and a lot of uncertainty with the model tracks. So let's continue to monitor, and we will see in the coming days how it is looking. As it is right now, the northern Leeward Islands should monitor as Erin could affect them if it remains weak and tracks further westward.
RTW
MONITOR NHC FOR THE LATEST ON ERIN HERE IS A LINK: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
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