HURRICANE ERIN 11:00 AM UPDATE AUG 19, 2025 AND THE TROPICAL OUTLOOK!

 

This morning's satellite imagery shows that the west quadrant of Erin may have had some dry air intrusion because not many thunderstorms are showing on that side of the storm. Regardless,this storm is still packing 105 mph winds. This morning's barometric pressure at my home in Miami was 29.83 inHg, an indication that Erin is not that far to affect sea level pressures in Florida. The large circulation from Erin will affect the Carolinas coast as Erin makes its closest proximity before turning northeast and accelerating over the open Atlantic. 

Latest public advisory from: NHC https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT5+shtml/191453.shtml

Now let's talk about the system behind Erin in the central Atlantic. This system has a medium chance, a 10% formation chance within 48 hours, and a 60% formation chance within 7 days. This system will more than likely have a chance for development as it nears the Leeward Islands and points north of the islands, depending on the track it takes. Models are mostly in agreement that the weakness between highs that is allowing Erin to track through will more than likely be there as another trough from Canada moves through. So for this system we will watch just in case the forecast changes.

Now let's discuss 99L south of the Cabo Verde Islands off the African coast. This is an impressive tropical wave with a nice circulation noted on visible satellite this morning. This also has a chance for development as it tracks westward; however, further to the west, the conditions are going to become less favorable, slowing down the development process. This system is too far out there to be concerned about, but I will monitor it for you. Formation chance as of 8 am this morning: 30% within 48 hrs and 30% within 7 days.

RTW

National Hurricane Center

703 
ABNT20 KNHC 191146
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Tue Aug 19 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane 
Erin, located a couple hundred miles to the northeast of the 
Southeast Bahamas.

Near the Leeward Islands in the Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave located over the central tropical Atlantic continues 
to produce a broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. 
Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of 
this system, and a tropical depression could form toward the end of 
the week or this weekend. This system should move westward to 
west-northwestward at about 20 mph and approach the vicinity of the 
Leeward Islands on Friday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL99):
A tropical wave located a couple of hundred miles to the southeast 
of the Cabo Verde Islands continues to produce a concentrated area 
of showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear 
generally favorable for additional development over the next couple 
of days as the system moves westward at around 15 mph. Towards the 
end of this week, this system could encounter a less favorable 
environment, limiting its development chances after that time.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Bucci

-------------------------------------------------------------

604 
ACCA62 KNHC 191147
TWOSAT

Perspectivas del Tiempo Tropical
Centro Nacional de Huracanes del SNM Miami FL
800 AM EDT martes 19 de agosto de 2025

Para el Atlántico Norte...Mar Caribe y el Golfo de América:

Sistemas Activos: El Centro Nacional de Huracanes está emitiendo
advertencias sobre el Huracán Erin, ubicado a un par de cientos de
millas al noreste del sureste de las Bahamas.

Cerca de las Islas de Sotavento en el Atlántico Tropical: Una onda
tropical ubicada sobre el Atlántico tropical central continúa
produciendo una amplia área de aguaceros y tormentas eléctricas
desorganizadas. Las condiciones ambientales parecen propicias para el
desarrollo gradual de este sistema, y una depresión tropical podría
formarse hacia el final de la semana o este fin de semana. Este
sistema debe moverse hacia el oeste a oeste-noroeste a aproximadamente
20 mph y acercarse a las cercanías de las Islas de Sotavento el
viernes.
* Probabilidad de formación hasta 48 horas...baja...10 por ciento.
* Probabilidad de formación hasta 7 días...medio...60 por ciento.

Este del Atlántico Tropical (AL99): Una onda tropical ubicada un par
de cientos de millas al sureste de las Islas de Cabo Verde continúa
produciendo un área concentrada de aguaceros y tormentas eléctricas.
Las condiciones ambientales parecen generalmente favorables para un
desarrollo adicional durante los próximos dos días a medida que el
sistema se mueve hacia el oeste a alrededor de 15 mph. Hacia el final
de esta semana, este sistema podría encontrar un ambiente menos
favorable, limitando sus posibilidades de desarrollo después de ese
tiempo.
* Probabilidad de formación hasta 48 horas...baja...30 por ciento.
* Probabilidad de formación hasta 7 días...baja...30 por ciento.

$$
Pronosticadora Bucci

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