TRACKING THE TROPICS UPDATE SEPTEMBER 25, 2025

 

Well, the latest guidance models are suggesting the 94L could make landfall anywhere from Georgia to the Carolinas early next week. It's a bit too early to say that this will happen since some models show 94L interacting with Humberto, and if this occurs, that could throw off the guidance model tracks. 

The ensemble models from this morning and some of the 12z latest models Also show this. However, 94L does not have a closed circulation as of yet, and it is difficult to say with certainty that this is what is going to occur. So continue to monitoring over the next few days the National Hurricane Center for the latest updates.

RTW

000
ABNT20 KNHC 251722
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Thu Sep 25 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane 
Gabrielle, located several hundred miles west of the Azores, and on 
Tropical Storm Humberto, over the subtropical central Atlantic.  

Central Caribbean Sea and Southwestern Atlantic (AL94):
Showers and thunderstorms are increasing in association with a
a tropical wave located near Hispaniola and the Turks and Caicos 
Islands.  An area of low pressure is expected to form along the 
wave tonight or early Friday when it moves near the southeast 
Bahamas.  This low is expected to become a tropical depression when 
it is in the vicinity of the central and northwest Bahamas late 
Friday or over the weekend and then track northwestward or 
northward over the southwestern Atlantic.  

Interests in the Dominican Republic, Haiti, the Turks and Caicos 
Islands, and the Bahamas should monitor the progress of this 
system.  Regardless of development, heavy rains and gusty winds 
are likely across that region during the next couple of days.  
While there is significant uncertainty in the long-range track and 
intensity of the system, the chances of wind, rainfall, and storm 
surge impacts for a portion of the southeast U.S. coast are 
increasing. Interests in that area should monitor the progress of 
the system. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

&&

Public Advisories on Humberto are issued under WMO header
WTNT33 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT3.
Forecast/Advisories on Humberto are issued under WMO header
WTNT23 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT3.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Reinhart

------------------------------------------

156 
ACCA62 KNHC 251723
TWOSAT

Perspectivas del Tiempo Tropical
Centro Nacional de Huracanes del SNM Miami FL
200 PM EDT jueves 25 de septiembre de 2025

Para el Atlántico Norte...Mar Caribe y el Golfo de América:

Sistemas Activos: El Centro Nacional de Huracanes está emitiendo
advertencias sobre el Huracán Gabrielle, ubicado varios cientos de
millas al oeste de las Azores, y en la Tormenta Tropical Humberto,
sobre el Atlántico central subtropical.

Mar Caribe Central y Atlántico Suroeste (AL94): Lluvias y tormentas
eléctricas están aumentando en asociación con una onda tropical
ubicada cerca de Hispaniola y las Islas Turcas y Caicos. Se espera que
un área de baja presión se forme a lo largo de la ola esta noche o a
principios del viernes cuando se mueva cerca del sureste de las
Bahamas. Se espera que esta baja se convierta en una depresión
tropical cuando esté en las cercanías del centro y noroeste de las
Bahamas a última hora del viernes o durante el fin de semana y luego
haga un seguimiento hacia el noroeste o hacia el norte sobre el
Atlántico suroeste.

Intereses en la República Dominicana, Haití, las Islas Turcas y
Caicos, y las Bahamas deben monitorear el progreso de este sistema.
Independientemente del desarrollo, fuertes lluvias y vientos con
ráfagas son probables a través de esa región durante los próximos dos
días. Si bien hay una incertidumbre significativa en la trayectoria de
largo alcance y la intensidad del sistema, las probabilidades de
viento, lluvia y impactos de marejada ciclónica para una porción de la
costa sureste de los Estados Unidos están aumentando. Intereses en esa
área deben monitorear el progreso del sistema.
* Probabilidad de formación hasta 48 horas...alta...80 por ciento.
* Probabilidad de formación hasta 7 días...alta...90 por ciento.

&&

Las Advertencias Públicas en Humberto se emiten bajo el encabezado de
la OMM WTNT33 KNHC y bajo el encabezado de AWIPS MIATCPAT3.
Pronóstico/Advertencias en Humberto se emiten bajo el encabezado de la
OMM WTNT23 KNHC y bajo el encabezado de AWIPS MIATCMAT3.

$$
Pronosticador Cangialosi/Reinhart

*** Este producto ha sido procesado automáticamente utilizando un
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texto convertido. De haber alguna duda, el texto en inglés es siempre
la versión autorizada. ***

...HUMBERTO GAINING STRENGTH... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN A DAY OR SO OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...

11:00 AM AST Thu Sep 25 Location: 21.4°N 56.8°W Moving: NW at 8 mph Min pressure: 1004 mb Max sustained: 50 mph

YOU CAN SEE IN THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY FORECAST MAP THAT THE LOW TURNS OUT TO SEA. HOWEVER, THESE ARE FORECASTS THAT ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE.

THE GERMAN MODEL (ICON) SHOWS 94L INTENSIFYING OVER THE BAHAMAS AND THEN BEING PULLED EAST AND OUT TO SEA BY HUMBERTO.

THE CANADIAN MODEL (GEM) SHOWS 94L, OR IMELDA, MAKING LANDFALL IN THE CAROLINAS, THEN LOOPING SOUTH, AND DISSIPATING OFF THE GEORGIA COAST.

THE AMERICAN MODEL (GFS) SHOWS 94L LOSING INTENSITY AND BEING PULLED OUT TO SEA.

THE EURO AI (EC-AIFS) SHOWS 94L ALSO BEING PULLED OUT TO SEA, JUST SOME TEMPORARY COASTAL EFFECTS.

THE EURO MODEL (ECMWF) 94L LANDFALL ALSO IN THE CAROLINAS THEN DISSIPATING, BUT ANOTHER LOW FORMS OFF THE GEORGIA COAST, POSSIBLY THE REMNANTS OF 94L OR IMELDA, THEN BRUSHING THE OUTER BANKS. SO AFTER SEEING ALL THESE INCONSISTENCIES WITH THE FORECASTS, IT IS HARD TO TELL AT THIS TIME WHERE 94L WILL END UP. SO CONTINUE TO MONITOR DAILY.