TRACKING THE TROPICS OCT. 2, 2025

 

Monitoring two areas: a new storm investigation over the Bahamas and Florida and one over the Central Atlantic. Both of these systems have a low formation chance.

The storm investigation over Florida and the Bahamas is being monitored for the possibility of low pressure developing along a stationary frontal boundary. At this time the upper-level winds are increasing and not favorable for tropical cyclone development. However, as long as that frontal boundary lingers, the conditions could become a bit more favorable in the coming days as Imelda moves further away. Regardless of development, it could enhance the rain and storms for a portion of Florida through next week.

RTW

National Hurricane Center

Southwestern Atlantic:
An area of low pressure may form along a remnant frontal boundary 
near the northwestern Bahamas and southern Florida over the next 
couple of days.  Any additional development is expected to be slow 
to occur as the system moves northwestward across the Florida 
Peninsula and into the Gulf of America.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

Forecaster Pasch

As for the system in the Atlantic, the Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of the wave. Most of the models are all over the place, and at this time it is useless to monitor the models until something develops.

RTW

Central Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is expected to move off the coast of Africa over the 
next day or two. Thereafter, this wave is forecast to interact with 
another disturbance in the eastern tropical Atlantic, and some slow 
development of the combined feature is possible as the system moves 
westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Pasch