000 WTNT31 KNHC 042036 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Hurricane Irma Advisory Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017 500 PM AST Mon Sep 04 2017 ...IRMA STRENGTHENS AS IT HEADS TOWARD THE LEEWARD ISLANDS... ...PREPARATIONS WITHIN THE WARNING AREA SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.7N 54.4W ABOUT 490 MI...790 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...944 MB...27.88 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of France has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for Guadeloupe. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Antigua, Barbuda, Anguilla, Montserrat, St. Kitts, and Nevis * Saba, St. Eustatius, and Sint Maarten * Saint Martin and Saint Barthelemy A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Guadeloupe * British Virgin Islands * U.S. Virgin Islands * Puerto Rico, Vieques, and Culebra A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Guadeloupe A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Dominica A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm- force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests in the Dominican Republic, Haiti, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the southeastern Bahamas should monitor the progress of Irma. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Irma was located near latitude 16.7 North, longitude 54.4 West. Irma is moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue into Tuesday, followed by a turn toward the west-northwestward late Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Irma will move near or over portions of the northern Leeward Islands Tuesday night and early Wednesday. Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher gusts. Irma is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km). The latest minimum central pressure reported by reconnaissance aircraft is 944 mb (27.88 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and large breaking waves will raise water levels by as much as 6 to 9 feet above normal tide levels along the coasts of the extreme northern Leeward Islands within the hurricane warning area near and to the north of the center of Irma. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is expected to reach the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... British and U.S. Virgin Islands except St. Croix...4 to 6 ft Northern coast of Puerto Rico...2 to 4 ft Southern coast of Puerto Rico and St. Croix...1 to 2 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area by Tuesday night, with tropical storm conditions expected by late Tuesday. Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area in the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico by late Wednesday, with tropical storm conditions possible by early Wednesday. Tropical Storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning area by late Tuesday. RAINFALL: Irma is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 3 to 6 inches across the Leeward Islands, with isolated maximum amounts of 10 inches across the northern Leeward Islands. These rainfall amounts may cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. SURF: Swells generated by Irma will affect the northern Leeward Islands during the next several days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Brown
Monday, September 4, 2017
IRMA UPDATE 0500 PM EDT SEPT 4, 2017
...IRMA STRENGTHENS AS IT HEADS TOWARD THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...
...PREPARATIONS WITHIN THE WARNING AREA SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION...
WAVE HEIGHTS OFFSHORE EXPECTED NORTH OF PUERTO RICO 30FT
NHC_TAFBVerified account @NHC_TAFB
1h1 hour ago
Wave height forecast for Wed PM from #HurricaneIrma has seas near 30 ft offshore N Puerto Rico and 12 ft seas over 400 nMi from center
BRYAN'S NORCROSS IRMA UPDATE FROM THIS MORNING
Bryan Norcross added 3 new photos.
Monday
morning update on HURRICANE IRMA: It increasingly looks like Irma will
be a direct threat to South Florida. I am recommending that everybody
get their supplies now... TODAY... before the frenzy starts in a few days.
6 hrs ·
Attached is an excellent list from the National Weather Service in Miami, but I have a few suggested changes and additions:
1. For a big storm like Irma, you need enough water to drink for 7 days. The water does NOT have to be bottled. You can simply buy water containers and fill them with tap water.
2. Get a plastic sheet to line the tub. Then you can fill your tub with water without it leaking out. You'll use this to flush the toilet and for basic cleaning if the water goes out.
3. Have enough food on hand to eat for 7 days - food bars and other packaged food is good.
4. Buy a large number of Ziploc-like plastic bags - large and small. You'll use them to protect papers and other valuables AND you'll fill them 3/4 full of water and stuff the freezer full. Do that by midweek to be sure they are frozen when/if the power goes out over the weekend. It will keep the refrigerator colder. Do NOT set your fridge on the lowest setting.
5. Get a portable radio that receives AM and FM. NOAA radio is good, but doesn't get you information on evacuations and other instructions. Get batteries.
6. Get LED flashlights and/or lanterns. They run forever on fewer batteries. But you still need plenty of extra batteries.
7. Get large plastic bags. They are invaluable for keeping valuable things dry if you have a leak.
8. Get large plastic boxes. If you put your valuables, photos, and papers in plastic bags inside the boxes, they will likely be okay.
9. Get plastic sheeting and plenty of duct tape.
10. Do your laundry this week!
Now is the time to review these lists and THINK. What are you going to do if the storm comes? I would take action on getting supplies now. There is nothing on the lists that you can't keep and use.
Hurricane Irma is strengthening and on an ominous path. Full preparation should be underway in the northern Leeward Islands and will be needed very soon in the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the northern D.R./Haiti, and the Bahamas.
In Florida, due to the large number of people that may have to prepare, good sense says to do it early. It is impossible to know how bad the hit will be, but all of the evidence points to a significant threat. TODAY is the day to begin the preparation process.
Review your plan and take the first steps.
1. For a big storm like Irma, you need enough water to drink for 7 days. The water does NOT have to be bottled. You can simply buy water containers and fill them with tap water.
2. Get a plastic sheet to line the tub. Then you can fill your tub with water without it leaking out. You'll use this to flush the toilet and for basic cleaning if the water goes out.
3. Have enough food on hand to eat for 7 days - food bars and other packaged food is good.
4. Buy a large number of Ziploc-like plastic bags - large and small. You'll use them to protect papers and other valuables AND you'll fill them 3/4 full of water and stuff the freezer full. Do that by midweek to be sure they are frozen when/if the power goes out over the weekend. It will keep the refrigerator colder. Do NOT set your fridge on the lowest setting.
5. Get a portable radio that receives AM and FM. NOAA radio is good, but doesn't get you information on evacuations and other instructions. Get batteries.
6. Get LED flashlights and/or lanterns. They run forever on fewer batteries. But you still need plenty of extra batteries.
7. Get large plastic bags. They are invaluable for keeping valuable things dry if you have a leak.
8. Get large plastic boxes. If you put your valuables, photos, and papers in plastic bags inside the boxes, they will likely be okay.
9. Get plastic sheeting and plenty of duct tape.
10. Do your laundry this week!
Now is the time to review these lists and THINK. What are you going to do if the storm comes? I would take action on getting supplies now. There is nothing on the lists that you can't keep and use.
Hurricane Irma is strengthening and on an ominous path. Full preparation should be underway in the northern Leeward Islands and will be needed very soon in the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the northern D.R./Haiti, and the Bahamas.
In Florida, due to the large number of people that may have to prepare, good sense says to do it early. It is impossible to know how bad the hit will be, but all of the evidence points to a significant threat. TODAY is the day to begin the preparation process.
Review your plan and take the first steps.
18z MODEL RUN 0200 PME EDT SEPT 4, 2017
Here are the latest 18z model run for Irma. I still don't see a curve northward with none of the Hurricane Center models or forecast track. While some of the models continue with that turn northward. So far the NHC forecast and models have had straight track and no turns. Still to early so keep monitoring and be hurricane ready.
18z Model Run
18z Hurricane Center Models
EURO 12z CAT 4 OR 5 IRMA NEAR IN BAHAMAS
Ryan MaueVerified account @RyanMaue
ECMWF 12z model updating ... showing powerful Cat 4/5 Hurricane #Irma in Bahamas away from Cuban coast middle Friday
FLORIDA NEEDS TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND BE PREPARED
I am still seeing a 90° turn to the north toward Florida and this cannot be ignored. We have had past major storms take a path similar to this in the past. I know as the storm tracks further west the models will adjust accordingly and that turn may be out over the Gulf threatening the Florida Pan Handle. So just keep monitoring and be ready in case it does head your way.
HURRICANE IRMA 11 AM EDT UPDATE SEPT 4, 2017
...HURRICANE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...
...HURRICANE WATCHES ISSUED FOR THE BRITISH AND U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
AND PUERTO RICO...
TRACK WITH RED LINE OVER CUBA IS NHC LATEST 11AM EDT FORECAST POSITION
000 WTNT31 KNHC 041447 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Hurricane Irma Advisory Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017 1100 AM AST Mon Sep 04 2017 ...HURRICANE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS... ...HURRICANE WATCHES ISSUED FOR THE BRITISH AND U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.8N 53.3W ABOUT 560 MI...905 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...944 MB...27.88 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Antigua has issued a Hurricane Warning for the islands of Antigua, Barbuda, Anguilla, Montserrat, St. Kitts, and Nevis. A Hurricane Watch has been issued for the British Virgin Islands. The government of the Netherlands has issued a Hurricane Warning for the islands of Saba, St. Eustatius, and Sint Maarten. The government of France has issued a Hurricane Warning for St. Martin and Saint Barthelemy. A Hurricane Watch has been issued for Guadeloupe. A Hurricane Watch has been issued for the U.S. Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Vieques, and Culebra. The government of Barbados has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for Dominica. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Antigua, Barbuda, Anguilla, Montserrat, St. Kitts, and Nevis * Saba, St. Eustatius, and Sint Maarten * Saint Martin and Saint Barthelemy A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Guadeloupe * British Virgin Islands * U.S. Virgin Islands * Puerto Rico, Vieques, and Culebra A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Dominica A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm- force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests in the Dominican Republic, Haiti, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the southeastern Bahamas should monitor the progress of Irma. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Irma was located near latitude 16.8 North, longitude 53.3 West. Irma is moving toward the west-southwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A turn toward the west is expected later today, followed by a west-northwestward turn late Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Irma will move near or over portions of the northern Leeward Islands Tuesday night and early Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher gusts. Irma is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional strengthening is forecast through Tuesday night. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km). The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 944 mb (27.88 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and large breaking waves will raise water levels by as much as 6 to 9 feet above normal tide levels along the coasts of the extreme northern Leeward Islands within the hurricane warning area near and to the north of the center of Irma. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area by Tuesday night, with tropical storm conditions expected by late Tuesday. Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area by late Wednesday, with tropical storm conditions possible by early Wednesday. RAINFALL: Irma is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 3 to 6 inches across the Leeward Islands, with isolated maximum amounts of 10 inches across the northern Leeward Islands. These rainfall amounts may cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. SURF: Swells generated by Irma will affect the northern Leeward Islands during the next several days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Brown
TRACK WITH RED LINE OVER CUBA IS NHC LATEST 11AM EDT FORECAST POSITION
Sunday, September 3, 2017
HURRICANE IRMA UPDATE 1100 PM EDT SEPT 3, 2017
...MAJOR HURRICANE IRMA EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS TUESDAY NIGHT...
000 WTNT31 KNHC 040232 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Hurricane Irma Advisory Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017 1100 PM AST Sun Sep 03 2017 ...MAJOR HURRICANE IRMA EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS TUESDAY NIGHT... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.2N 51.0W ABOUT 710 MI...1145 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...961 MB...28.38 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Antigua, Barbuda, Anguilla, Montserrat, St. Kitts, and Nevis * Saba, St. Eustatius, and Sint Maarten * Saint Martin and Saint Barthelemy Interests in the remainder of the Leeward Islands, the British and U.S. Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico should monitor the progress of Irma. Additional Hurricane and Tropical Storm Watches may be required for portions of this area on Monday. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Irma was located near latitude 17.2 North, longitude 51.0 West. Irma is moving toward the west-southwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A west-southwestward to westward motion is expected through Monday night. On the forecast track, the center of Irma is expected to approach the northern Leeward Islands late Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher gusts. Irma is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km). A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft reported a minimum central pressure of 961 mb (28.38 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area by Tuesday night, with tropical storm conditions possible by late Tuesday. SURF: Swells generated by Irma will begin affecting the northern Leeward Islands on Monday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch
00z MODEL RUN FOR HURRICANE IRMA 0900 PM EDT SEPT 3, 2017
HERE ARE THE LATEST MODEL STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY BEYOND 7 DAYS. STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES...RTW
These are the Hurricane center models and note that the HWFI is further south and west. This could be an indication that high pressure continues to build over Irma pushing the cyclone south a more westward. Also note the OFCI hurricane center forecast tracking somewhat south of previous as well.
This persistence puts South Florida under the gun. Consider checking your kits making sure every thing is in order. The Coast of Florida from the Florida Keys northward to Jacksonville will more than likely be under some sort of watch and warning by next weekend. BE HURRICANE READY!
These are the Hurricane center models and note that the HWFI is further south and west. This could be an indication that high pressure continues to build over Irma pushing the cyclone south a more westward. Also note the OFCI hurricane center forecast tracking somewhat south of previous as well.
This persistence puts South Florida under the gun. Consider checking your kits making sure every thing is in order. The Coast of Florida from the Florida Keys northward to Jacksonville will more than likely be under some sort of watch and warning by next weekend. BE HURRICANE READY!
BRYAN NORCROSS HURRICANE IRMA UPDATE SEPT 3, 2017
No good news this afternoon on HURRICANE IRMA. The track of the
hurricane is as projected. It's heading a little south of due west,
which will take it into a much more threatening position.
It appears that full hurricane preparations are going to be required in the northern Leeward Island, Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the D.R. & Haiti, and the Bahamas.
It is increasingly likely that hurricane preparations will be required on at least the east coast of Florida. There is no way to know the level of impact Irma might have on Florida at this time. South Florida will likely be touched by the end of the cone tomorrow.
It appears that full hurricane preparations are going to be required in the northern Leeward Island, Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the D.R. & Haiti, and the Bahamas.
It is increasingly likely that hurricane preparations will be required on at least the east coast of Florida. There is no way to know the level of impact Irma might have on Florida at this time. South Florida will likely be touched by the end of the cone tomorrow.
After this week, a
track up the East Coast or even into the Gulf cannot be ruled out. If
Irma tracks over the mountainous Caribbean islands, it may miss the
first opportunity to turn north and be pushed farther west. The bottom
line is, everybody along the hurricane coast from New Orleans to New
England should review their plans.
This will be a large, powerful storm, based on everything we know. It will not have to make a direct hit to have a significant effect. This is going to require everybody's attention until we have more certainty on the future track.
This will be a large, powerful storm, based on everything we know. It will not have to make a direct hit to have a significant effect. This is going to require everybody's attention until we have more certainty on the future track.
IRMA INTERMIDIATE ADVISORY 0800 PM EDT SEPT 3, 2017
...IRMA EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS BY
LATE TUESDAY...
000 WTNT31 KNHC 032346 CCA TCPAT1 BULLETIN Hurricane Irma Intermediate Advisory Number 18A...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017 800 PM AST Sun Sep 03 2017 Corrected location ...IRMA EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS BY LATE TUESDAY... SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.4N 50.3W ABOUT 760 MI...1220 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...959 MB...28.32 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Antigua, Barbuda, Anguilla, Montserrat, St. Kitts, and Nevis * Saba, St. Eustatius, and Sint Maarten * Saint Martin and Saint Barthelemy Interests in the remainder of the Leeward Islands, the British and U.S. Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico should monitor the progress of Irma. Additional Hurricane and Tropical Storm Watches may be required for portions of this area on Monday. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Irma was located by a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 17.4 North, longitude 50.3 West. Irma is moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h). A westward to west-southwestward motion with some reduction in forward speed is expected through Monday night. On the forecast track, the center of Irma is expected to approach the northern Leeward Islands late Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher gusts. Irma is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km). The minimum central pressure estimated from NOAA Hurricane Hunter observations is 959 mb (28.32 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area by Tuesday night, with tropical storm conditions possible by late Tuesday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Brown
HURRICANE IRMA UPDATE 0500 PM EDT SEPT 3, 2017
...HURRICANE WATCHES ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...
...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT EN ROUTE TO IRMA...
I am keeping an eye on HWFI model because it performed well with Harvey and comparing it to the NHC OFCI model. NHC model run still adjusting further south because of the dip southward the cyclone took. This has prompted Hurricane watch for a portion of the Leeward Islands.
000 WTNT31 KNHC 032050 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Hurricane Irma Advisory Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017 500 PM AST Sun Sep 03 2017 ...HURRICANE WATCHES ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS... ...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT EN ROUTE TO IRMA... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.6N 49.8W ABOUT 790 MI...1275 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...969 MB...28.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Antigua has issued a Hurricane Watch for the islands of Antigua, Barbuda, Anguilla, Montserrat, St. Kitts, and Nevis. The government of the Netherlands has issued a Hurricane Watch for the islands of Saba, St. Eustatius, and Sint Maarten. The government of France has issued a Hurricane Watch for St. Martin and Saint Barthelemy. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Antigua, Barbuda, Anguilla, Montserrat, St. Kitts, and Nevis * Saba, St. Eustatius, and Sint Maarten * Saint Martin and Saint Barthelemy Interests in the remainder of the Leeward Islands, the British and U.S. Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico should monitor the progress of Irma. Additional Hurricane and Tropical Storm Watches may be required for portions of this area on Monday. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Irma was located near latitude 17.6 North, longitude 49.8 West. Irma is moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h). A westward to west-southwestward motion with some reduction in forward speed is expected through Monday night. On the forecast track, the center of Irma is forecast to approach the northern Leeward Islands late Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher gusts. Irma is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 969 mb (28.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area by Tuesday night, with tropical storm conditions possible by late Tuesday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Brown
I am keeping an eye on HWFI model because it performed well with Harvey and comparing it to the NHC OFCI model. NHC model run still adjusting further south because of the dip southward the cyclone took. This has prompted Hurricane watch for a portion of the Leeward Islands.
18z model run
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