FLZ076>078-201100-
Monroe Upper Keys-Monroe Middle Keys-Monroe Lower Keys-
Including the cities of Key Largo, Marathon, and Key West
824 PM EST Wed Dec 19 2018
...STRONG COLD FRONT WILL IMPACT THE KEYS THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT...
A strong cold front is expected to blast through the Florida Keys
and adjacent coastal waters late Thursday or Thursday night. This
front is expected to bring multiple weather hazards to the Keys
from Thursday morning through Friday evening, including strong to
severe thunderstorms, strong winds on land with gales likely on
the coastal waters, and possible coastal flooding on the Gulf and
Bayside.
The main weather event is expected to occur from Thursday morning
through Friday night. The potential for strong to severe
thunderstorms ahead of the cold front will be highest from
Thursday into Thursday night. These thunderstorms may organize
into a squall line which could move through the Keys during the
late afternoon or evening hours. The primary hazards with any
thunderstorms will be strong, gusty and shifting winds along with
lightning strikes. Some of the thunderstorms on Thursday or
Thursday night could become severe with damaging winds and large
hail. Isolated waterspouts will also be possible, and there is a
slight risk for tornadoes as well. The Storm Prediction Center
continues to include all of South Florida and the Keys within a
severe thunderstorm risk area for Thursday into Thursday night.
On land, gusty south to southwest winds will increase to 20 to 30
mph on Thursday. Strong sustained west winds around 30 mph with
gusts near 40 mph are expected on Friday, with winds possibly
reaching these speeds beginning Thursday night. This will prompt a
Wind Advisory.
These persistent and strong westerly winds will cause Coastal
Flooding impacts on the Gulf and Bay side communities along the
length of the Florida Keys. The maximum water levels will likely
occur along the shores of Blackwater and Buttonwood Sounds,
around the time of high tide late Friday afternoon. In these
areas total water levels may reach 3 to 4.5 feet above mean sea
level Friday into Friday night. Coastal flood warnings and
advisories may be required.
Mariners should continue to prepare for a high impact weather
event for Thursday through Friday night, and time is running
short. Small Craft Advisories will certainly be needed during this
event beginning Thursday as strong southerly breezes develop.
Winds will become westerly and increase to near gale behind the
front Thursday night, lasting into Friday night. There is an
increasing likelihood that Gale Warnings will be needed for much
or all of the Keys coastal waters. A Gale Watch is now in effect
for all Keys coastal waters. Very large seas are also expected
with this event, peaking on Friday at 10 to 17 feet across the
Straits of Florida and deep waters of the southeastern Gulf of
Mexico, 5 to 8 feet in Hawk Channel inside the reef, and 4 to 8
feet across the Gulf waters inside five fathoms.
Listen to NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio for the latest weather
information, including possible warnings. In addition, please
remember to turn on your radio's severe weather tone activation
feature. Also visit your Florida Keys National Weather Service on
the web at www.weather.gov/keywest.
Wednesday, December 19, 2018
FLORIDA SEVERE WEATHER UPDATE
Storm Prediction Center has upgraded a portion of Florida "Enhanced" chance for severe weather along the east coast (see map). The other portion of Florida from Central Florida including south to the Florida straits is still under a "slight" chance.
Looks like the first batch of rain and storms could arrive over night and and the second half Thursday. Stay alert!
THERE IS STILL A POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINS AND SEVERE STORMS OVER FLORIDA THURSDAY
There is still a chance for the possibility of strong to severe storms with damaging winds, heavy rains and isolated tornadoes on Thursday evening.
A trough moving across the Gulf and a bit of Caribbean moisture is helping to energize an area of showers and storms over the southeast Gulf. This trough will sweep this disturbance across Florida with the potential for heavy rains, damaging winds and isolated tornadoes.
This will more than likely occur late Thursday and over night so if the severe weather materializes you need to have your NOAA weather radio set to alert or have your cell phone near by so alerts will be heared when issued via cell phone network emergency alert system...RTW
Tuesday, December 18, 2018
STRONG TROUGH COULD PRODUCE SEVERE STORMS FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA
Strong trough will be dipping south across the southeast by Thursday and it is forecast to drag a pre-front squall line across Central and Southern Florida.
This system could produce enough upper level lift for the formation of mesocyclone type thunderstorms, and they can be severe in nature.
With these type of storms you can't rule out isolated water spouts and tornado as the water spouts move onshore within the squall line by Thursday.
I will continue to monitor this system in the coming days...RTW
Friday, December 14, 2018
PRE-FRONT TROUGH MOVING ON SHORE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA
Radar Review:
Pre-front trough moving in over Florida today could produce strong to maybe severe thunderstorms. So far I don't see any signs of water spouts off shore that could turn into a tornado on shore. RTW
Thursday, December 13, 2018
THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
Thunderstorm Outlook
Another storm system will drag a cold front across the southeast enhancing a chance for strong to severe thunderstorms across a portion of northern and Central Florida on Friday and a possibly on Saturday. RTW
Another storm system will drag a cold front across the southeast enhancing a chance for strong to severe thunderstorms across a portion of northern and Central Florida on Friday and a possibly on Saturday. RTW
Sunday, December 9, 2018
Saturday, December 8, 2018
Monday, December 3, 2018
SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK DEC. 3, 2018
Severe Weather Outlook:
There is a chance of an isolated tornado over northern Florida today as a front moves southeast.
There is a chance of an isolated tornado over northern Florida today as a front moves southeast.
Friday, November 30, 2018
DESTRUCTIVE 2018 HURRICANE SEASON COMES TO AN END TODAY
Tropical Outlook:
The tropical Atlantic, Carbbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico remains quiet!
The end of the 2018 hurricane Season comes to a close today Nov 30, 2018, and predictions
we're slightly off.
It was first thought to be slightly below average season, but as August and September the peak of hurricane season came around they started popping like popcorn across the Atlantic. This made it an average to slightly above average season but not by much.
However, as we say, "all it takes is one" or in this case two to turn you life upside down, and those were Florence and Michael our only two Major hurricanes this season.
Between both hurricanes their we're 154 death and an approximate total of destruction cost of $33.27 billion in 2018 US Dollars.
I think the death total was kind of high for living in this generation of technology/ weather forecasting tools and awareness of the danger storm surge and rainfall in a hurricane can cause. I believe this is due to ignorance, and those that think experts are hyping the warnings.
We have seen this happen where they say it's going to be bad storm and it ends up being nothing like they said it was going to be, so people become complacent and because it was not bad they think I survive this storm I can survive others. That to me is a bad assumption on those who think that way!
We can't really blame the experts because every hurricane does not behave the same as the other, and this is due to uncertain, and complex atmospheric conditions that are constantly changing.
Yes forecast are becoming better and more accurate every year but there are still those variables in the weather that I call monkey wrenches that can through off a forecast.
Remember no matter how accurate forecast becomes throughout the years it will never be a perfect science.
So this is why you must not become complacent and ignore evacuation and preparation advice given by those that are there to warn you from impending landfall threat.
Always enter every hurricane season prepared and with a plan of action, and always heed the advice, and leave if told to evcuate.
Lets keep those death toll numbers down and not become a statistic. Never under estimate the power of one of these storms big or small.
Ralph's Tropical Weather (RTW)
The tropical Atlantic, Carbbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico remains quiet!
The end of the 2018 hurricane Season comes to a close today Nov 30, 2018, and predictions
we're slightly off.
It was first thought to be slightly below average season, but as August and September the peak of hurricane season came around they started popping like popcorn across the Atlantic. This made it an average to slightly above average season but not by much.
However, as we say, "all it takes is one" or in this case two to turn you life upside down, and those were Florence and Michael our only two Major hurricanes this season.
Between both hurricanes their we're 154 death and an approximate total of destruction cost of $33.27 billion in 2018 US Dollars.
I think the death total was kind of high for living in this generation of technology/ weather forecasting tools and awareness of the danger storm surge and rainfall in a hurricane can cause. I believe this is due to ignorance, and those that think experts are hyping the warnings.
We have seen this happen where they say it's going to be bad storm and it ends up being nothing like they said it was going to be, so people become complacent and because it was not bad they think I survive this storm I can survive others. That to me is a bad assumption on those who think that way!
We can't really blame the experts because every hurricane does not behave the same as the other, and this is due to uncertain, and complex atmospheric conditions that are constantly changing.
Yes forecast are becoming better and more accurate every year but there are still those variables in the weather that I call monkey wrenches that can through off a forecast.
Remember no matter how accurate forecast becomes throughout the years it will never be a perfect science.
So this is why you must not become complacent and ignore evacuation and preparation advice given by those that are there to warn you from impending landfall threat.
Always enter every hurricane season prepared and with a plan of action, and always heed the advice, and leave if told to evcuate.
Lets keep those death toll numbers down and not become a statistic. Never under estimate the power of one of these storms big or small.
Ralph's Tropical Weather (RTW)
Seasonal statistics | |
---|---|
Total depressions | 16 |
Total storms | 15 |
Hurricanes | 8 |
Major hurricanes (Cat. 3+) | 2 |
Total fatalities | 154 total |
Total damage | > $33.27 billion (2018 USD) |
Thursday, November 29, 2018
TROPICAL UPDATE NOV 29, 2018...0238 PM EST
Tropical Outlook:
The tropics remain quiet as we near the end of the 2018 Hurricane Season tomorrow Nov 30.
The tropics remain quiet as we near the end of the 2018 Hurricane Season tomorrow Nov 30.
Tuesday, November 27, 2018
TEMPS DROPPING IN MIAMI THIS LATE AFTERNOON
Temps dropping to the lower 50s in Miami-Dade tonight with the passing of a strong cold front. At this time 0341 PM Miami is in the upper 60s. By morning Wednesday temps are expected to be lower 50s and mid 60s during the day struggling to reach 70. So bundle up the kids tomorrow Wednesday for school. The front will be a short one only two days in the 50s then back to the 80s by the weekend...RTW
TROPICAL OUTLOOK NOV 27, 2018...1025 AM EST
Tropical Outlook:
The tropics remain quiet as we near the end of the 2018 Hurricane Season. There are no signs of tropical development... RTW
The tropics remain quiet as we near the end of the 2018 Hurricane Season. There are no signs of tropical development... RTW
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)